CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Let's hope that for the sake of your wallet you have not been following the advice of sweetactionpicks thus far. But this is the week we turn it around with a 4/4 showing!

Sunday 3pm game

GREEN BAY (-2.5) @ Chicago; over 43.5

The Packers offense has looked so dominant the last couple weeks that it is hard to imagine them losing to anyone at this point. They've found a running game with Starks that has complemented the impressive play of Rodgers and his talented group of veteran receivers. I see this offense putting up over 30 points against the Bears defense. On the other side, the Bears still have not shown me much this season. Sure, they won at home against the Seahawks, but thats something that some college teams could accomplish. If you look at their schedule they only have two impressive wins (early in the year against GB and late in the season against the Jets) but have folded in many other big games, highlighted by the home beating they took from the Patriots. Drink up Jay....Its gonna be a long day on Sunday!

Prediction: Packers 35; Bears 17

Sunday 6:30pm game

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. New York; under 38.5

These two teams play a similar brand of football except the Steelers are better at each phase of it. Both are driven by their strong defenses, dominant running games, and timely play-action calls. In each of these areas I would rather have the Pitt D, Mendenhall, and Mr Nomeansyes over the Jets D, LT, and Dirty Sanchez.

While I will admit a little bit of hesitation based on the late-season win by the Jets versus the Steelers, it is important to realize that Polamolu was missing from that game. Without him in the lineup the Steelers D is a different animal.

Prediction: Steelers 20; Jets 10

DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS

Saturday 4:30pm game

BALTIMORE (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh; under 36.5

These two teams are so evenly matched that it is impossible not to take the points. Each of the last 4 matchups between these teams have been decided by three points or less and both games this year have gone under. I wouldn't expect the cold weather to help open up the offense. Instead, both teams will focus on the run and try to make this a battle of field position. Another thing these two teams have in common is that their fans are all fat losers.

Prediction: Steelers 16; Ravens 13

Saturday 8:00pm game

GREEN BAY (+1.5) @ Atlanta; over 45.5

The Packers are peaking at just the right time. They finished the regular season as strong as any team and kept the momentum going in Philadelphia. With a running game now available, Rodgers has been more effective then ever off the play action. The Falcons rely on a conservative game plan that doesn't work well in the playoffs. I'm afraid that Coach Smith will soon be thought of as another Schottenheimer or Turner if he doesn't realize how to adjust his style. They were exposed in the week 16 home game against the Saints as a team that couldn't dominate when they needed to. The need the kind of "killer instinct" they had when Vick was on the team.

I expect Green Bay to pull away early as the Falcons are in a position where they have to abandon the run game to try to catch up.

Prediction: Packers 28; Falcons 24

Sunday 1:00pm game

SEATTLE (+10.5) @ Chicago; under 40.5

The week of the road underdogs continues with the Seahawks. While Seattle struggled on the road for most of the year, they had an impressive 23-20 victory in Chicago. Their defense caused big problems for Chicago's offensive line by blitzing from the outside with defensive backs and caused pressure on Cutler. I don't believe that Lovie Smith is a good enough coach to make the adjustments and Cry Baby Jay will force some throws to lead to interceptions, thus not allowing them to score a lot.

Despite this I still think that the Bears will prevail in a tight defensive battle. the Seahawks offense is unable to produce enough in the outdoor, cold weather environment.

Prediction: Bears 20; Seahawks 14

Sunday 4:30pm game

NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs. New York; over 45.5

Last time the Jets traveled to Foxboro it was hyped as the clash between the two best teams in the AFC. During that contest NY was exposed as a team with a shaky QB, an over-rated defense, and a loud-mouth coach. He needs to keep his mind on the game plan and off his post game plans.

The Jets approached the last game trying to establish the pass which was clearly a mistake. I think they will approach this game with a mindset more focused on the run and be able to put up more than the 3 points they squeaked out with in that game. This will take pressure off Sanchez and put it squarely on the D. The problem for them is that their defense was built to stop a Randy Moss offense. They thrive on using Revis to shut down one receiver and let the rest of their defense blitz and create turnovers. But with Moss gone the Pats have too many weapons for NY to stop. Cromartie and Revis will essentially take Branch and Welker out, but the two rookie TEs will dominate down the middle against slower linebackers and safties. They will take advantage of the Jets blitz packages with screen and misdirections plays. Expect a high scoring game with Sanchez and the Jets unable to keep up.

Prediction: Patriots 41; Jets 23

One Step Closer...

PLAYOFFS?? PLAYOFFS!!

That's right Jim...sweetactionpicks.com is back for the Playoffs to deliver the gambling advice that you crave with the same passion that Burkhardt craves a deep dicking! We are going to share the winning picks as well as the over/under for every game this playoffs.

WILD CARD WEEKEND

Saturday, 4:30pm game

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) @ SEATTLE; over 45.5

I feel a little silly even calling this one a playoff game. The Seahawks are the most pathetic playoff team in the history of the NFL. They had only one win against a team with a winning record and all 9 of their loses were by FIFTEEN OR MORE points. They just took it like your mom at a donkey show. The defending champs should be licking their chops at the good fortune of opening up on the road against these chumps. With the season ending injuries to RBs Ivory and Thomas I don't see the Saints making a deep run but beating the lowly Seahawks in a blowout should be no problem.

Prediction: SAINTS 41; SEAHAWKS 20

Saturday, 8pm gam

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. NEW YORK; under 44.5

The key matchup to focus on in this game is Peyton Manning against Rex Ryan. When it comes to head to head battles, Ryan can't even sniff Peyton's results no matter how nice he smiles and asks, "can I smell them?". Manning's record is 5-1, with the only loss coming in week 16 last year when Manning left the game in the second half with a lead only to have his backup blow it. The only chance that the Jets would have is to run the ball and exploit the vulnerable Colts D by going for the home run play deep to Edwards or Holmes. They need to control the time of possession to keep the ball out of Manning's hands and this will help bleed the clock and supports the under. From a defensive standpoint, Indy will stack the box to stuff a Jets rushing attack that faded down the stretch. The Jets' best chance of scoring will be to work the pass but Sanchez doesn't have the talent to get the ball to his playmakers down the field.

Prediction: COLTS 27; JETS 16

Sunday, 1pm game

BALTIMORE (-2.5) @ KANSAS CITY; under 41.5

While exceeding expectations all season, the Chiefs success has been little more than a smoke and mirrors show. Taking advantage of a weak schedule all season long, the Chiefs only faced 2 games against eventual playoff teams. In these two games they lost by double digits to the Colts and beat up the 7-9 Seahawks. That win is as impressive as Ted's job history. The Ravens, on the other hand, have faced a much tougher schedule and still came out with an impressive 12-4 record. Three of their four loses have come against the top 3 teams in the NFL, proving that they know how to take care of business. They have balance on offense with Rice and a talented trio of veteran receivers.

The Ravens defensive strengths match up very well with the Chiefs offensive strengths. They penetrate into the backfield well with Haloti Ngata living in the backfield which will disrupt the Chiefs normally potent running game. From a passing standpoint the Ravens live by throwing deep to Bowe. Expect a disguised double coverage over the top from Ed Reed who will try to bait Cassel into making bad decisions.

Prediction: RAVENS 24; CHIEFS 10

Sunday, 4:30pm game

PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. GREEN BAY; over 45.5

This game is going to be a dogfight! Two explosive offenses that have the ability to put up huge numbers with quick strike attacks. I really think that this game is a coin flip because of the QB play, but that's why I'm taking the home team giving less than a field goal in a shootout that won't quite reach the Cardinals playoff game from a year ago, but won't be far behind.

Prediction: EAGLES 34; PACKERS 31

Sorry to fans of all the teams that didn't make the playoffs! The Giants choked away the season late, the Chargers couldn't get it going until it was too late, the Cowboys never even got started. And while the Dolphins may have rolled over and given up the season...at least the mascot found found a way to stay busy in his free time!