WEEK 9 NFL PICKS

LOCK OF THE WEEK


HOUSTON (+4.5) @ Minnesota

The Texans boast one of the hottest offenses, putting up point totals of 27, 27, 29, 28 and 35 in their last five games (the last three wins). The aerial attack is close to unstoppable with Andre Johnson becoming the leagues most dominant receiver and Kevin Walter doing his best impersonation of Wes Welker from 2007. The Vikings have not been able to put up any level of consistency in a year that many predicted they would by one of the top teams in the league. Fortunately for you and I, Vegas has not caught on to this yet. Expect a high-scoring game and plenty of fantasy points for ADP as well, but not nearly enough help from Gus "noodle-arm" Frerotte as he's fresh off a 4 interception day. LOCK IT UP!




REST OF WEEK 9

1 pm games

BUFFALO (-5.5) vs. New York Jets

Brett Favre has comitted 8 turnovers in the past 3 games. That wouldn't be so bad by itself for old greybeard, but the opponents in those games have been the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. Not exactly the class of the NFL. Look for the Bills to bounce back at home after a surprising loss last week.

CHICAGO (-12.5) vs. Detroit
Detriot is in so much trouble that they are attempting to coax Daunte Culpepper from retirement. Not a good sign...

Also, if you have Forte in you fantasy league then start him. 160 yards and 2 TDs is a safe prediction.


JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
The Bengals are as functional as the man you see to the right after he's had two Cosmos.

CLEVELAND (-1.5) vs. Baltimore
In all honesty I have no idea what to think for this game. Both teams are coming in with some level of momentum. I'll take the home team after my coin landed on heads.


ST. LOUIS (+2.5) vs. Arizona

High scoring game here and don't be afraid to take the over of 48. These teams are to defense what Sean Tate is to sobriety. I like St. Louis' passing game to get going and Torry Holt to have his breakout game of the year. Start everyone you own from these teams in fantasy.


TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. Green Bay
I said it last week and I will stick with it: Ride her til she bucks you. Take the Titans.

TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Kansas City
Its been well documented that I am a fan of of the Bucs this year. Graham and Dunn will combine for huge number against a horrendous Chiefs run D.

4pm games

MIAMI (+3.5) @ Denver
Denver's rush D is hurting which will create a lot of lanes for the explosive Ronnie Brown.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5) vs. Dallas

PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) @ Seattle

ATLANTA (-2.5) @ Oakland

8pm game

NEW ENGLAND (+5.5) @ Indianapolis
The Colts have shown me no reason thsi season why they should be favored by greater than 3 points in this game. Until they do, don't be like teh rest of teh suckers who bet based on team reputation and not on performance from this year.

Monady Night

PITTSBURGH (+2.5) @ Washington
This was one of the easier games for me to pick. The Steelers are a far superior team to a Redskins team that has overacheived and has its only two offense weapons ailing. Grab that Money-Line.





LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 5-3



SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 64-52

WEEK 8 NFL PICKS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

BUFFALO (-1.5) @ Miami
Buffalo has won 8 straight ATS vs Miami and is coming off a big win vs. San Diego. Edwards was sharp in his first game back from concussion and shred the Chargers D for 261 yards on 25 of 30 passing. In addition, Marshawn Lynch continued to be good for a TD a game. Miami meanwhile took a step back with a home loss to a Baltimore team that had done very little this season on the offensive side of the ball until last week. In what is essentially a pick, I go with the team that has the momentum and the talent. Lock it up!

REST OF WEEK 7:

1pm Games

TAMPA BAY (+3.5) @ Dallas
Two quick facts sum up this matchup: The Bucs are 6-1 ATS this season and the Boys are 2-5 ATS this season. Add to that the injuries and turmoil in big D and its a wonder why the Bucs aren't the ones giving points. Expect to see Jerry Jones pacing the sidelines and Wade Phillips waiting for his pink slip.

DETROIT (+7.5) vs. Washington
Fact: Washington has not beaten a team this season by more than 7 points and are coming off of bad home performances against St. Louis and Cleveland. While Detroit is no gem, they have had close road losses the past two weeks to quality opponents. Detroit at home coupled with Portis' sore shoulder and I like the Lions to cover.

ST. LOUIS (+7.5) @ New England
Just like I said last week this Patriots squad will be alternating up and down all season. Last week was up so this week will be down. I also expect Stephen Jackson to run wild.

NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) vs. San Diego
The Saints are a better team at home (3-1) than on the road (0-3). Likewise, the Chargers tend to struggle away from San Diego (1-3), especially scoring points. New Orleans getting points in this game seems like a gift from Vegas so don't pass it up.

NEW YORK JETS (-12.5) vs. Kansas City
When Larry Johnson said this past week, "I want to start off saying I apologize to the Hunt family, my family, first and foremost, the fans, teammates, coaches and players." was he talking about slapping and spitting on some skank at a bar or the Chiefs performance? They have lost by 15 or more points in 4 of the last 5 weeks, including back to back scores of 34-0 and 34-10. At least they are consistent in what they allow. Even without the LJ distractions this one would be a no brainer. Take the Jets.

ATLANTA (+8.5) @ Philadelphia
Atlanta has been the surprise team of the '08 season so far and for some reason the odds makers haven't caught on yet. The Eagles are fading in support with the Phillies doing so well and this home game will not be like the usual hostile environment at the Linc. Take the points.

OAKLAND (+6.5) @ Baltimore
Seems like a lot of points for two very similar teams. Strong D, rely on the run, can pass for shit. Take the underdog in this situation.

CAROLINA (-4.5) vs. Arizona
Carolina is a different team at home. They are undefeated and have outscored opponents in the last two games by 64-7. Arizona meanwhile has given up 80 points in its last two road games. I love the Panthers and I smell a sweet aroma in the air. Its either fresh baked cookies or the over of 43.5

4pm Games

JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) vs. Cleveland
Jax will run the ball and that will be the story of the game. I also like the under of 42 points. With the exception of Cleveland's MNF outburst of 35 points against the defending champs, they have struggled to put points up. It won't get any easier against the physical and intimidating Jaguars.

HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati
I will bet against the Bengals every week this season unless something drastic happens. Apologies to all Bengals fans. wait...what was that? there are none. ok, good. I feel better now.

PITTSBURGH (-2.5) vs. New York Giants
Two very solid teams so I will side with the home club. I think this will be a lower scoring game than most expect with playoff-like environment. This game will be as intense as two hobos fighting over a ham sandwich.

SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) vs. Seattle
I'm a little weary taking the 49ers after a coaching change, but then I think back to the performance that the 49ers offense put on again Hawks defense in week 2 and I get goosebumps. Couple this with the injuries that Seattle is suffering and their unblemished 0-3 road record and I like San Fran. Remember also that these two combined for 63 points in September and don't neglect the over of 41.

Monday Night

TENNESSEE (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis
Ride her til she bucks you. Thats how I feel about the Titans this year, who are 6-0 against the spread. Additionally, the Titans have gone 4-0 ATS vs. the Colts over the last two seasons. Numbers don't lie. Thats why I like them so much.


LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD TO DATE: 5-2

SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 60-42

AS ALWAYS TED, GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY!

WEEK 7 NFL PICKS

LOCK OF THE WEEK:

SAN DIEGO (+0.5) @ Buffalo
San Diego is heating up after beating down the Patriots in prime time last week. LT has averaged 114 yards rushing/game in 3 career matchups vs. Buffalo and I expect to see a lot more of that. Trent Edwards is coming back for his first game since his concussion and I see him turning the ball over at least a couple of times against the aggressive Chargers secondary.


REST OF WEEK 7:

1pm Games

CHICAGO (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
Kyle Orton and his receivers have continued to go above expectations and will do so again at home against a suspect Vikings defense. Additionally, the Vikings continue to disappoint with last week's narrow home victory of the Lions.

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
Whether its Parker or Moore starting at RB for the Steelers they will have a huge game on the ground. Cinncy is without starting QB Palmer and with the season already lost, have nothing left to play for.

TENNESSEE (-7.5) @ Kansas City
The only remaining undefeated team vs. the most pathetic team in the NFL. hmmmmmm. tough one. Big day on the ground for Titans two RBs.

NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) @ Carolina
The Saints offense will be firing on all cylinders with the return of Colston to an already potent lineup. This will free up Bush for a big day and I expect a high-scoring shootout. Consider the over in this game as well.

DALLAS (-6.5) @ St. Louis
Despite the issues at QB and the distractions that Pacman brings, the Cowboys are too good a team to not put up more points than the Rams can handle. Love the over in this one as well.

MIAMI (-2.5) vs. Baltimore
I don't expect the Ravens to put up more than 10 points. They are led by a rookie QB (Flacco) and rely heavily on a running game. Problem for them is that the Fish are 5th in run defense and have won their last 3 games ATS. This one borders on LOCK status. The low O/U of 35 deserves a look as well.

SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ New York Giants
49ers will be able to put up enough points to a Giants team that suddenly looks like they are back down to Earth after the beat down the Browns handed the.


4pm games

HOUSTON (-8.5) vs. Detroit
Not much here to say except that Detroit sucks. a lot. really bad. Has anyone ever heard of Dan Orlovsky before last week? didn't think so. next game...

NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) @ Oakland
Owner Al Davis has ruined this team for the season with his firing of Kiffen. Someone needs to feed that guy his soup so he doesn't get so cranky. or change him. or something. Either way, the Jets have started to put points on the board as Favre starts to get more comfortable and Thomas Jones came out of hibernation last week. Blowout here.

CLEVELAND (+7.5) @ Washington
Cleveland just beat the previously undefeated Super Bowl champs by 21 points and the Redskins lost to the Rams by 2 at home. Am I missing something here? Take the Browns who will not lose by more than a TD.

INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) @ Green Bay
Lambeau Field just doesn't have the same intimidation factor when Aaron Rodgers and his sore shoulder are running the show. Colts offense looks to be fine (with or without the overrated Addai). Indy takes this one big.


8pm game

TAMPA BAY (-10.5) vs. Seattle
Bucs at home this year are a dominant team with that defense and a ball-control offense. Additionally, the Bucs are 5-0 since opening week ATS. Seattle's only win this year came against St. Louis. I give the Hawks as much of a chance in this game as I do of my Grandmother knocking out Mike Tyson.


Monday Night

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. Denver
Oh those tricky Pats. This season they have been up-down-up-down. Well...its time for an up week. This in combination with the weak Broncos defense and the pride that these veteran players will show after last week's embarrassing prime-time loss have all signs pointing to New England. Oh, and don't get caught up in all the hype for the over. Broncos offense has slowed the last two weeks and this year's Patriots can't put them up like they used to.

LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD TO DATE: 5-1

SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 55-33

Enjoy the SWEET ACTION!!!

LOCK OF THE WEEK RESULTS

A feature of sweetactionpicks is that every week I will provide a "Lock of the Week". These Locks are provided on Friday and use the spreads provided by espn. The "Lock of the Week" picks to date this year were as follows:

Week 1: San Francisco/Arizona (Over 48)
Week 2: Green Bay (-2.5)
Week 3: Tennesse (-4.5)
Week 4: San Diego (-7.5)
Week 5: Indianapolis (-3.5)
Week 6: Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Lock of the Week results as of 10-12-2008: 5-1