All the Road teams are favored in Wild Card Weekend!
ATLANTA (-2.5) @ ARIZONA
INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) @ SAN DIEGO
BALTIMORE (-3) @ MIAMI
PHILADELPHIA (-3) @ MINNESOTA
Please have your picks and username into me by 12:00 (midnight) Wednesday. Also, remember to include a username.
Good Luck!
Monday, December 29, 2008
Sunday, December 28, 2008
BEAT THE ORACLE READERS' CONTEST
Have you ever wanted an opportunity to show your worth against a Professional NFL Pick Oracle???
During this year's NFL playoff season we will be holding a reader contest where you can pick the games and see how you stack up with the rest of the Sweet Action Picks community!!! When it comes to your ability to make picks, will you be the next Tom Brady or the next Ryan Leaf?
Interested in more information? I thought so. Here it is...
Rules (please read carefully):
1) Each Monday all of the playoff games will be posted with the spreads for that week's games. The spreads will not change for the purposes of this contest once posted.
2) E-mail me your picks by Wednesday each week at mlholcomb10@gmail.com with the title: "Sweetactionpicks reader contest: username". (You will need to create a username that you will use for the purposes of this contest - example of potential usernames: CrabsAtTempe or OneNutHomo)
3) On Thursday or Friday of each week, Sweetactionpicks will post its picks and also create an updated leaderboard to show everyone's standings.
3) On Thursday or Friday of each week, Sweetactionpicks will post its picks and also create an updated leaderboard to show everyone's standings.
4) You must be registered as a "follower of this blog" to be eligible. This can be done easily for clicking on "follow this blog" to the right
5) Have fun!
6) You must be at least eighteen years old and a legal resident of the United States, Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Island to be eligible for prizes. Sorry Mexico!
7) In the event of a tie, the tiebreaker will first be whoever correctly picks the SuperBowl. Second tiebreaker would be whoever wins more in the Championship round, etc. In the event that both teams in a tie are equal in each round, the tiebreaker will be whoever comes closer to correctly predicting the SuperBowl score.
Prizes:
1) The grandprize winner will receive a large customized "LOCK OF THE WEEK" brand T-Shirt.
2) Any runner-up who also beats out our pick Oracle will receive a free 6-month subscription to receive free gambling advice whenever they request it through the sweetactionpicks website.
Here's some of our past winners who have gone on to great success:
Friday, December 26, 2008
WEEK 17 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK: 
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) @ Buffalo
WASHINGTON (+3.5) @ San Francisco
CHICAGO (+3.5) @ Houston
In what will undoubtedly be a crazy week in terms of spreads, the overall key is to look for teams that have something left to play for. The best example of this is where the Bears will be fighting to sneak into the playoffs while the Texans will have visions of the golf course on their minds. In addition, Chicago is coming off a thrilling MNF victory and has gained momentum. Forte has never hit the rookie wall and will produce big time in this game as the Bears seemed to realize in the second half of last weeks game that he is their only viable option on offense. I can't believe that the Bears are getting points so take 'em and run. Lock it up!!!
In what will undoubtedly be a crazy week in terms of spreads, the overall key is to look for teams that have something left to play for. The best example of this is where the Bears will be fighting to sneak into the playoffs while the Texans will have visions of the golf course on their minds. In addition, Chicago is coming off a thrilling MNF victory and has gained momentum. Forte has never hit the rookie wall and will produce big time in this game as the Bears seemed to realize in the second half of last weeks game that he is their only viable option on offense. I can't believe that the Bears are getting points so take 'em and run. Lock it up!!!
REST OF WEEK 17:
1pm games:
1pm games:
ATLANTA (-14.5) vs. St. Louis
After the Panthers lost to the Giants on Sunday Night it left open the chance that the Falcons could steal the NFC South and a first round bye. Therefore, I expect the Falcons to throw everything they have at the Rams and get up early and hold on to it. The Rams have lost 9 in a row and have no motivation to get off that streak this week.
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) @ BuffaloThe Patriots dominate Buffalo the way Sean gets dominated by the girl to the left. No Mercy!
9 straight wins over the past 5 seasons is more than a trend and with the way New England has been blowing people out these past couple weeks and with a potential playoff berth on the line, expect this one to follow along. Pats win big in this one.
CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
Surprisingly, the Bengals are on a two game winning streak and Cedric Benson has become a serious threat on the ground. I wouldn't recommend watching this game, but if you're looking for a streaking team, you could do worse than to put a few bucks on the Bengals.
DETROIT (+10.5) @ Green Bay
Can Detroit win? Will they complete the first ever 0-16 season? While I've been mentioning this week that most teams have motivation to win for a playoff berth, does any team have more motivation than the Lions to win? On the other side of the ball, the Packers proved on MNF that they can lose a game in a number of ways. Two more facts to keep in mind: 1)the Lions actually have a record above .500 ATS during road games this season; 2)these teams combined for 73 points in their first matchup, but the over/under is at 43.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) @ Indianapolis
Tony Dungy and the Colts have a reputation of sitting all their starters when their playoff seeding is all set. With the number five seed in the AFC all assured, I don't think that the studs play, but I think that the Titans play their guys to try and stay fresh with the bye coming up next week.
MINNESOTA (-6.5) vs. New York Giants
The Giants are banged up and have the #1 seed clinched so I don't expect them to be able to bring the same intensity that the Vikings will have in front of the home crowd. As long as Tavarius Jackson doesn't get in the way with a load of turnovers, the Vikings should take this one easily.
CAROLINA (-3.5) @ New Orleans
A late lead that was blown against the Giants last week has put the Panthers in a position where they need a win or a Falcons loss to hold onto the division and first round bye. I think they can take this one on the road and start their run to the SuperBowl. Also notable about this game is that Drew Brees is within range of breaking Dan Marino's yards passing in a season record. Expect a quick strike, high scoring game here.
CLEVELAND (+10.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers have dominated the Browns in recent memory, but with the likelihood that they rest their starters for at least half the game, I don't see how they win big. A lot of guys on the Browns are playing for jobs/contracts so the motivation is there following this difficult season to finish on a high note. This will also be a good indication as to whether or not the players have completely given up on Romeo Crenel. He'll probably be fired after the game, but don't worry. He's still happy about his situation. That or someone just brought up KFC.
The Steelers have dominated the Browns in recent memory, but with the likelihood that they rest their starters for at least half the game, I don't see how they win big. A lot of guys on the Browns are playing for jobs/contracts so the motivation is there following this difficult season to finish on a high note. This will also be a good indication as to whether or not the players have completely given up on Romeo Crenel. He'll probably be fired after the game, but don't worry. He's still happy about his situation. That or someone just brought up KFC.
OAKLAND (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Bucs have been in a free fall ever since defensive coordinator Monte Kiffen announced that he would be leaving the team at the end of the season. They went from an almost assured playoff berth to looking in from the outside. I have not seen any evidence recently that the Bucs could beat a team by two TDs or more (unless its the Lions).
4pm games:
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) vs. Miami
The Jets won the matchup earlier this season at Dolphins Stadium by a score of 20-14. While everyone is impressed with the Fish winning 8 of their last 9 games, you should really take a look at their opponents before giving them too much credit. Which win is impressive? Was it the 2 point win over Oakland? Maybe the 4 point point win over the Rams? Perhaps I'm overlooking their performance where they pulled out the 5 point win over the 49ers? The only game during that stretch against a quality opponent was the blowout loss to the Patriots. I like the Jets to finish the season strong at home and give themselves a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
DALLAS (+1.5) @ Philadelphia
Both teams have a lot to play for and that should make this one of the weekends most interesting games. Every time that TO returns to Philly,you can count on plenty of distractions, but Dallas is that much better than the Eagles that they can overcome it. Contrary to every one's perceptions at the beginning of the season, the Cowboys are now a defensively oriented team. The Eagles are so inept with Andy Reid running the show that they can't seem to figure out that they are a running team when they win and a passing team when they lose. I don't see him figuring this out now if he hasn't over the first 16 weeks.
BALTIMORE (-12.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Ravens have been one of the surest things in the gambling world this season with an 11-4 record ATS. The Jaguars have been the opposite of that posting a 4-11 record ATS. Specifically, the Jags have lost their last two road games by double digits and those were to far lower opponents.
WASHINGTON (+3.5) @ San FranciscoBlah. Both teams have nothing to play for and no one has any reason to watch or care about this game. That's why I put the picture to the right in an effort to make this interesting. I would rather watch "Two Guys, One Horse" than this game.
SEATTLE (+5.5) @ Arizona
The Seahawks have been playing much better during the second half of the season and it finally paid off with a great upset win of the Jets. The Cardinals meanwhile look like they have no interest in playing football now that they have the NFC West wrapped up. They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games (the one cover was vs. the Rams, so can we even count that?). I would refer to that as sour action. Stay away.
The Seahawks have been playing much better during the second half of the season and it finally paid off with a great upset win of the Jets. The Cardinals meanwhile look like they have no interest in playing football now that they have the NFC West wrapped up. They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games (the one cover was vs. the Rams, so can we even count that?). I would refer to that as sour action. Stay away.
8pm game:
DENVER (+8.5) @ San Diego
This was one of the more difficult games to pick this weekend. On one hand, the Chargers have been playing very well and are motivated after being fisted by Ed Hochuli during a Week 2 loss to the Broncos. Still, I can't shake the feeling that this game will remain competitive to the end with a playoff berth on the line and that the spread should not be higher than 4 or 5.
**Check back on Sunday when a new readers' contest and prize will be announced!!!**
Friday, December 19, 2008
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
Following a week off, back to the action BABY!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) @ Tennessee
Hell of a matchup and the game of the week in my eyes. A couple of weeks ago I would have jumped all over the Titans in this matchup, but the Steelers now look like a team that will be hosting the Lombardi trophy in February and I see this as a stepping stone. Pittsburgh's had to deal with the league's toughest schedule which has prepared them for matchups like this while the Titans have had a cupcake walk, especially during the second half of the year. Lock this up!!!
REST OF WEEK 16:
Saturday Night:
DALLAS (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Despite his success with wins/losses you have to remember that Joe Flacco is, in fact, a rookie. He has struggled whenever a good defense has been put in his way and his 5 losses are to the Giants, Steelers (2), Titans and Colts. This is why I have no confidence in him going against a Cowboys Defense that is as hot as any in the league. The only time they have given up more than 20 in the last 5 weeks was due to garbage time scores or defensive TDs by the other team. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 53 sacks and will make Flacco eat dirt all night long.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Quite a matchup here, huh? I feel terrible for the 19-22 people who paid for tickets and might actually attend this game. Betting on this game would mean you have a problem Ted.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) @ Detroit
What is making me pick the Saints here. Could it be the Lions 0-14 overall record? Could it be that the Lions are 1-6 at home ATS? Could it be that I am an asshole and just want to see the Lions become the first team to finish 0-16? All are options, but they are all just excuses to get your attention focused on the more important issue: the over of 50.5
MIAMI (-3.5) @ Kansas City
I wish the Chiefs had it in them, but I don't see how they win this game. The Dolphins' defense has really been turning it up recently allowing point totals of 12, 3 and 9 during the last three weeks (all wins). Taking out their performance against an extremely motivated Patriots team, they have not given up over 20 points in over half a season. This, combined with the expected cold weather, points to taking the under of 39.5
ST. LOUIS (+5.5) vs. San Francisco
Shades of the Browns/Bengals games from earlier. I like the home team getting points, but wouldn't recommend betting on this you degenerates.
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. Arizona
Week 3: 17-24; Week 4: 35-56; Week 8: 23-27; Week 13: 20-48. My favorite theme of the season has been how poorly West Coast teams (and Arizona in particular) have struggled when traveling East to play games. Well, now that the weather has turned cold and an Arizona team will be playing in the snow do you think its gonna get any better? Me neither. Also, with more snowfall expected in new England this Sunday, it might be in your best interests to take the under of 44.5 before it drops to 40 by game time.
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
In the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have had a chance to take control of their division. Instead, they have lost to the Panthers convincingly and looked horrendous offensively against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been able to gain some late season momentum with back to back division wins including last weekend's miracle with less than two minutes left. This is strictly a momentum pick and a vote of no confidence in the Bucs offense since Earnest Graham's injury.
4pm games:
SEATTLE (+4.5) vs. New York Jets
Were it not for the complete incompetence of JP Losman, the Jets would be riding a 3 game losing streak into this matchup. I don't think that a cross country trip will be a good thing for a team that despite being in the driver's seat for its own division, looks as bad as it has all season right now. Additionally the Seahawks have been playing well as of late especially at home. That makes this the ML upset special of the week.
HOUSTON (-7.5) @ Oakland
The Texans are actually one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Raiders are also 1-6 ATS at home this season and I think this could be a 21 point blowout.
DENVER (-6.5) vs. Buffalo
Broncos are on pace to limp there way to a disappointing first round home loss after a win to a depressing to watch Bills team. I really hate to bet on either of these teams, but one is much more pathetic than the other.
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) @ Washington
The Eagles are making a late playoff push and I don't expect them to lose momentum to a Redskins team that is just waiting for the season to end to get Jim Zorn off the payroll. Interestingly about the Eagles is that despite their struggles early in the season, they are an impressive 9-3 ATS on the season. Better start begging to keep your job Jim!
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. Atlanta
The Falcons have been a wonderful story all season, but they just aren't a good road team. The Vikings running game has started clicking on all cylinders and will take advantage of this being the weak point in the Falcons' team.
8pm game:
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ New York Giants
Who would have guessed that shooting yourself in the leg would cause such a big distraction? Way to go Plax. In one season you've gone from Superbowl hero to football outcast who could be in jail soon. 1st pick in a prison league, who do you take Vick or Plax?
OK...i digress. The reason I like the Panthers so much is their running game and point totals of 31, 28, 35, 38 and 30 points. That's staggering. Keep an eye on the weather, but the over of 37.5 looks succulent.
Monday Night:
CHICAGO (-4.5) vs. Green Bay
The Packers' season is officially over. The Bears have some false hope that they could squeeze in. That hope may be gone by the time Monday Night rolls around, but I still look at their schedule this year and see that they have been a dominant home team.
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) @ Tennessee
Hell of a matchup and the game of the week in my eyes. A couple of weeks ago I would have jumped all over the Titans in this matchup, but the Steelers now look like a team that will be hosting the Lombardi trophy in February and I see this as a stepping stone. Pittsburgh's had to deal with the league's toughest schedule which has prepared them for matchups like this while the Titans have had a cupcake walk, especially during the second half of the year. Lock this up!!!
REST OF WEEK 16:
Saturday Night:
DALLAS (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Despite his success with wins/losses you have to remember that Joe Flacco is, in fact, a rookie. He has struggled whenever a good defense has been put in his way and his 5 losses are to the Giants, Steelers (2), Titans and Colts. This is why I have no confidence in him going against a Cowboys Defense that is as hot as any in the league. The only time they have given up more than 20 in the last 5 weeks was due to garbage time scores or defensive TDs by the other team. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 53 sacks and will make Flacco eat dirt all night long.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Quite a matchup here, huh? I feel terrible for the 19-22 people who paid for tickets and might actually attend this game. Betting on this game would mean you have a problem Ted.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) @ Detroit
What is making me pick the Saints here. Could it be the Lions 0-14 overall record? Could it be that the Lions are 1-6 at home ATS? Could it be that I am an asshole and just want to see the Lions become the first team to finish 0-16? All are options, but they are all just excuses to get your attention focused on the more important issue: the over of 50.5
MIAMI (-3.5) @ Kansas City
I wish the Chiefs had it in them, but I don't see how they win this game. The Dolphins' defense has really been turning it up recently allowing point totals of 12, 3 and 9 during the last three weeks (all wins). Taking out their performance against an extremely motivated Patriots team, they have not given up over 20 points in over half a season. This, combined with the expected cold weather, points to taking the under of 39.5
ST. LOUIS (+5.5) vs. San Francisco
Shades of the Browns/Bengals games from earlier. I like the home team getting points, but wouldn't recommend betting on this you degenerates.
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. Arizona
Week 3: 17-24; Week 4: 35-56; Week 8: 23-27; Week 13: 20-48. My favorite theme of the season has been how poorly West Coast teams (and Arizona in particular) have struggled when traveling East to play games. Well, now that the weather has turned cold and an Arizona team will be playing in the snow do you think its gonna get any better? Me neither. Also, with more snowfall expected in new England this Sunday, it might be in your best interests to take the under of 44.5 before it drops to 40 by game time.
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
In the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have had a chance to take control of their division. Instead, they have lost to the Panthers convincingly and looked horrendous offensively against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been able to gain some late season momentum with back to back division wins including last weekend's miracle with less than two minutes left. This is strictly a momentum pick and a vote of no confidence in the Bucs offense since Earnest Graham's injury.
4pm games:
SEATTLE (+4.5) vs. New York Jets
Were it not for the complete incompetence of JP Losman, the Jets would be riding a 3 game losing streak into this matchup. I don't think that a cross country trip will be a good thing for a team that despite being in the driver's seat for its own division, looks as bad as it has all season right now. Additionally the Seahawks have been playing well as of late especially at home. That makes this the ML upset special of the week.
HOUSTON (-7.5) @ Oakland
The Texans are actually one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Raiders are also 1-6 ATS at home this season and I think this could be a 21 point blowout.
DENVER (-6.5) vs. Buffalo
Broncos are on pace to limp there way to a disappointing first round home loss after a win to a depressing to watch Bills team. I really hate to bet on either of these teams, but one is much more pathetic than the other.
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) @ Washington
The Eagles are making a late playoff push and I don't expect them to lose momentum to a Redskins team that is just waiting for the season to end to get Jim Zorn off the payroll. Interestingly about the Eagles is that despite their struggles early in the season, they are an impressive 9-3 ATS on the season. Better start begging to keep your job Jim!
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. Atlanta
The Falcons have been a wonderful story all season, but they just aren't a good road team. The Vikings running game has started clicking on all cylinders and will take advantage of this being the weak point in the Falcons' team.
8pm game:
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ New York Giants
Who would have guessed that shooting yourself in the leg would cause such a big distraction? Way to go Plax. In one season you've gone from Superbowl hero to football outcast who could be in jail soon. 1st pick in a prison league, who do you take Vick or Plax?
OK...i digress. The reason I like the Panthers so much is their running game and point totals of 31, 28, 35, 38 and 30 points. That's staggering. Keep an eye on the weather, but the over of 37.5 looks succulent.
Monday Night:
CHICAGO (-4.5) vs. Green Bay
The Packers' season is officially over. The Bears have some false hope that they could squeeze in. That hope may be gone by the time Monday Night rolls around, but I still look at their schedule this year and see that they have been a dominant home team.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Thursday Night Game:
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Colts seems to be clicking on all cylinders as they head towards the home stretch of the season. (having played a number of crummy teams in a row hasn't hurt either, with DET, CIN, CLE as their last 3 victims). The road doesn't get much tougher here as the disappointment of the year, your Jacksonville Jaguars, host them in a Thursday Night prime time matchup. Don't
let the Jags fool you into thinking that they should cover because they are a home. In fact, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS this year at home and have nothing to play for (except new contracts). Jack Del Rio is just biding his time until the season ends and he is handed his pink slip. Wait, tell us again Jack...How many time should you have been fired by now?
Additionally, I would like to once again promote the Over (44) for a Thursday night game. Short weeks are much harder for defenses to prepare than offenses.
All the weekend picks and more to come this Friday evening...
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Colts seems to be clicking on all cylinders as they head towards the home stretch of the season. (having played a number of crummy teams in a row hasn't hurt either, with DET, CIN, CLE as their last 3 victims). The road doesn't get much tougher here as the disappointment of the year, your Jacksonville Jaguars, host them in a Thursday Night prime time matchup. Don't
let the Jags fool you into thinking that they should cover because they are a home. In fact, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS this year at home and have nothing to play for (except new contracts). Jack Del Rio is just biding his time until the season ends and he is handed his pink slip. Wait, tell us again Jack...How many time should you have been fired by now?Additionally, I would like to once again promote the Over (44) for a Thursday night game. Short weeks are much harder for defenses to prepare than offenses.
All the weekend picks and more to come this Friday evening...
Saturday, December 6, 2008
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