LOCK OF THE WEEK:
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) @ Tennessee
Hell of a matchup and the game of the week in my eyes. A couple of weeks ago I would have jumped all over the Titans in this matchup, but the Steelers now look like a team that will be hosting the Lombardi trophy in February and I see this as a stepping stone. Pittsburgh's had to deal with the league's toughest schedule which has prepared them for matchups like this while the Titans have had a cupcake walk, especially during the second half of the year. Lock this up!!!
REST OF WEEK 16:
Saturday Night:
DALLAS (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Despite his success with wins/losses you have to remember that Joe Flacco is, in fact, a rookie. He has struggled whenever a good defense has been put in his way and his 5 losses are to the Giants, Steelers (2), Titans and Colts. This is why I have no confidence in him going against a Cowboys Defense that is as hot as any in the league. The only time they have given up more than 20 in the last 5 weeks was due to garbage time scores or defensive TDs by the other team. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 53 sacks and will make Flacco eat dirt all night long.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Quite a matchup here, huh? I feel terrible for the 19-22 people who paid for tickets and might actually attend this game. Betting on this game would mean you have a problem Ted.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) @ Detroit
What is making me pick the Saints here. Could it be the Lions 0-14 overall record? Could it be that the Lions are 1-6 at home ATS? Could it be that I am an asshole and just want to see the Lions become the first team to finish 0-16? All are options, but they are all just excuses to get your attention focused on the more important issue: the over of 50.5
MIAMI (-3.5) @ Kansas City
I wish the Chiefs had it in them, but I don't see how they win this game. The Dolphins' defense has really been turning it up recently allowing point totals of 12, 3 and 9 during the last three weeks (all wins). Taking out their performance against an extremely motivated Patriots team, they have not given up over 20 points in over half a season. This, combined with the expected cold weather, points to taking the under of 39.5
ST. LOUIS (+5.5) vs. San Francisco
Shades of the Browns/Bengals games from earlier. I like the home team getting points, but wouldn't recommend betting on this you degenerates.
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. Arizona
Week 3: 17-24; Week 4: 35-56; Week 8: 23-27; Week 13: 20-48. My favorite theme of the season has been how poorly West Coast teams (and Arizona in particular) have struggled when traveling East to play games. Well, now that the weather has turned cold and an Arizona team will be playing in the snow do you think its gonna get any better? Me neither. Also, with more snowfall expected in new England this Sunday, it might be in your best interests to take the under of 44.5 before it drops to 40 by game time.
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
In the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have had a chance to take control of their division. Instead, they have lost to the Panthers convincingly and looked horrendous offensively against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been able to gain some late season momentum with back to back division wins including last weekend's miracle with less than two minutes left. This is strictly a momentum pick and a vote of no confidence in the Bucs offense since Earnest Graham's injury.
4pm games:
SEATTLE (+4.5) vs. New York Jets
Were it not for the complete incompetence of JP Losman, the Jets would be riding a 3 game losing streak into this matchup. I don't think that a cross country trip will be a good thing for a team that despite being in the driver's seat for its own division, looks as bad as it has all season right now. Additionally the Seahawks have been playing well as of late especially at home. That makes this the ML upset special of the week.
HOUSTON (-7.5) @ Oakland
The Texans are actually one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Raiders are also 1-6 ATS at home this season and I think this could be a 21 point blowout.
DENVER (-6.5) vs. Buffalo
Broncos are on pace to limp there way to a disappointing first round home loss after a win to a depressing to watch Bills team. I really hate to bet on either of these teams, but one is much more pathetic than the other.
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) @ Washington
The Eagles are making a late playoff push and I don't expect them to lose momentum to a Redskins team that is just waiting for the season to end to get Jim Zorn off the payroll. Interestingly about the Eagles is that despite their struggles early in the season, they are an impressive 9-3 ATS on the season. Better start begging to keep your job Jim!
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. Atlanta
The Falcons have been a wonderful story all season, but they just aren't a good road team. The Vikings running game has started clicking on all cylinders and will take advantage of this being the weak point in the Falcons' team.
8pm game:
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ New York Giants
Who would have guessed that shooting yourself in the leg would cause such a big distraction? Way to go Plax. In one season you've gone from Superbowl hero to football outcast who could be in jail soon. 1st pick in a prison league, who do you take Vick or Plax?
OK...i digress. The reason I like the Panthers so much is their running game and point totals of 31, 28, 35, 38 and 30 points. That's staggering. Keep an eye on the weather, but the over of 37.5 looks succulent.
Monday Night:
CHICAGO (-4.5) vs. Green Bay
The Packers' season is officially over. The Bears have some false hope that they could squeeze in. That hope may be gone by the time Monday Night rolls around, but I still look at their schedule this year and see that they have been a dominant home team.
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