Week Seven NFL Picks

WEEK 7 NFL PICKS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

SD (-4.5) @ KC

Don't let Kansas City fool you into thinking that they are a good team by finally getting a win last week. They still had trouble beating a team that is dealing with some coaching turmoil and did not look focused. Taking that game out of the equation, the only time the Chiefs have done lost by less than 4.5 points was to the Raiders. I'll let Ronald say what everyone is thinking...

On the other hand, the Chargers have won three straight contests against the Chiefs. They also have a clear advantage when you go through each roster where they have better players at almost every position. Their record of 2-3 is not impressive to date, but the level of competition that they have faced is. Lock it up!

Sunday 1pm games

GB (-7.5) @ CLE

The Packers really got it going on both sides of the ball last week with a dominating 26-0 win over the Lions. Rodgers looks to be the force that he was in the preseason when he was picking apart defenses with a high completion percentage to a number of receivers. With little history between these teams to help us predict, we need to rely on performance thus far this season and Green Bay has been vastly better.

HOU (-3.5) vs. SF

The preseason hype machine that was the Texans offense looks like it has finally gotten into the swing of things. Matt Schaub has looked dominant and since the opening weekend disappointment against the Jets they have put up and average of 27.2 points per game. I don't think that the 49ers offense can hang with that type of explosiveness. Also, despite the fast start to the season, if you look at the quality of San Fran's opponents it suddenly doesn't look as impressive.

IND (-13.5) @ STL

The Colts have won by 17 or more points in each of the last three weeks and each time it was against a tougher opponent than the Rams. I will still predict that we see an impressive fantasy performance from Stephen Jackson against the undersized Colts D.

MIN (+4.5) @ PIT

This should be a hell of a game and a hell of a shootout. The Vikings have gone over in every contest this season and the Steelers have gone over in each of their last four after the offense got rolling. Love the over. As for the game, I think that the way the Viking's offense can put up points both by running and passing that they should never be an underdog by more than a field goal.

NE (-14.5) vs. TB (game played in London)

Hi London! Here is what will probably end up being our most boring and lopsided game of the week. Here's a hot ref to make you feel better. The Bucs really suck and the Patriots just got their offense rolling. Start everyone on the Patriots in fantasy.

Sunday 4:05pm games

CAR (-7.5) vs. BUF

The Bills game was exciting last week and it was great that they got a surprise overtime win against the Jets, but that doesn't make up for the fact that they have averaged only 9 points per game over the last four weeks. Their defense has been playing with fire too. Despite not allowing a ton of points, they are allowing 352 yards/game including a pathetic 182 per game on the ground. Eventually they will get burned for that and I predict it will happen for Stewart and Williams this week.

OAK (+6.5) vs. NYJ

The Jets are reeling. Five picks for Sanchez has finally slowed down the hype and the defense has started to look vulnerable. I think this one will end up being low scoring and that the Raiders might even be able to pull off the outright win.

Sunday 4:15pm games

CHI (+1.5) @ CIN

If you look at both of these teams stats for the season they are very close in most categories. This one is essentially a coin flip and I will side with the Bears on a hunch. Nothing else here. I wouldn't bet on this game.

ATL (+3.5) @ DAL

The Cowboys continue to be giving points in games where it makes no sense. They are a hype machine with such a large fan base that Vegas knows it can put out ridiculous spreads because their large fan base will make it worth their while. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS against some good competition while the Cowboys are 3-2 overall and all their wins were against some of the poorer teams in the league.

NO (-6.5) vs. MIA

The Saints are 5-0 ATS and I'm a firm believer that you need to ride the hot teams. This is especially relevant for the Saints because they have the offensive firepower to make the amount of a spread obsolete.

Sunday 8:20pm game

NYG (-7.5) vs. ARZ

The Cardinals hate traveling East and they hate playing in cold weather. Plus, they have some serious injury concerns with Boldin's high ankle sprain to deal with. I think the Giants defense comes back pissed off after a lackluster performance against the Saints last week and slows the Cardinals passing attack. Arizona may get something going in garbage time so the fantasy numbers for Warner, Fitz, and Breaston should be good but by then the game will be decided.

Monday 8:30pm game

WASH (+7.5) vs. PHI

Despite the Eagle having what is generally perceived as the "better" team, the Redskins have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two including both games last year. They are also at home and despite some dysfunctionality, they have not been getting blown out in any game this year. The Eagles are coming off a loss to the Raiders where they looked absolutely helpless on offense. This is all a part of McNabb and his unreliable, whacky antics.

RECORD TO DATE

LOCK OF THE WEEK: 3-2

SEASON TO DATE: 45-45

LAST WEEK: 4-10 (OUCH!)

Week Six NFL Picks

WEEK 6 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK

1 pm games
CIN (-4.5) vs. Hou
GB (-13.5) vs. Det
MIN (-2.5) vs. BAL
NYG (+3.5) @ NO
CAR (-3.5) @ TB
WASH (-6.5) vs. KC
JAX (-9.5) vs. STL
CLE (+14.5) @ PIT

4:05 pm games
SEA (-2.5) vs. ARZ
PHI (-14.5) @ OAK

4:15 pm games
NYJ (-9.5) vs. BUF
TEN (+9.5) @ NE

8:20 pm games
CHI (+3.5) @ ATL

Monday Night 8:30pm game
DEN (+4.5) @ SD

Week Five NFL Picks

WEEK 5 NFL PICKS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

MIN (-10.5) @ STL

This is about as one-sided as a matchup can be. The Vikings boast a strong run defense and a dynamic, playmaking offense and the Rams are good at nothing. The Rams have lost by nineteen points or more in 3 of four games this season. I expect Adrian to have a monster game and win some fantasy matchups all by himself this week. I'm foaming at the mouth trying to get my wager in on this game. Lock it up!

Sunday 1:00pm games

BUF (-6.5) vs. CLE

yikes. who the hell is paying to see this game. stay away.

PIT (-10.5) @ DET

Just when it looked like the Lions had some momentum, they lose to the Bears by 24 points and suffer injuries to Stafford, Johnson, and Smith. Two of those three may play but they won't be one hundred percent and that is bad news for Lions fans (if they exist).

DAL (-8.5) @ KC

aaahhhhhhhh. The Chiefs suck. You can't get detailed analysis like that anywhere else!

OAK (+16.5) @ NYG

Just a hunch here. I think the Raiders D can keep this within two TDs, especially when considering the Giants injuries on offense. I'm not saying the Giants will lose, just that they won't win by two TD's and a field goal.

PHI (-13.5) vs. TB
The Eagles aren't as good as I thought they would be at the beginning of the season, but they are good at blowing bad teams out. Coming off a bye week they should be rested, healthy, and have a strong game plan. My only worry is that Any Reid will be distracted this week since McDonalds just brought back the Monopoly game. Just look at him fantasizing about his next Big Mac fix. and then the next one ten minutes later. and ten minutes later....

CAR (-3.5) vs. WASH

Looking for big things from the Panthers, also coming off a bye week. They finally get to face a weak team and I think that Williams will start to justify the preseason top ten fantasy pick people used on him.

BAL (-8.5) vs. CIN

OK Cincy...I'm a little pissed at you for blowing a two TD lead against the Browns and ruining my Lock of the Week from week four. Still, even if I wasn't upset I still wouldn't be able to bring myself to bet against the Ravens at home. They were good even against a tough Patriots team and could have won on the road if they had converted on a few big plays down the stretch.

Sunday 4:05pm game

SF (-2.5) vs. ATL

The Falcons showed against New England that they can be pushed around and intimidated by teams that are bigger and more intense. Those are the exact qualities that Singletary stresses to his surprising 49ers and they should use it well on Sunday. I really like this game.

Sunday 4:15pm games

JAX (+0.5) @ SEA

I love the Jaguars in this game. They seem to have found a passing game in the last couple weeks with Sims-Walker emerging as a legitimate threat. Also, the Seahawks season is beginning to look eerily similar to last season with Hasselbeck's injuries and losing some games that could go either way. Take a long look at the over as well. These teams both have sloppy defenses which could lead to some big plays.

HOU (+5.5) @ ARZ

The Texans defense showed up last week which was a bit of a surprise. Granted, it was against the Oakland circus but I still think they can build on that and win this game on the road. The Cardinals have been battling a lot of injuries and don't come close to resembling the offensive powerhouse that they were last season.

NE (-3.5) @ DEN

I absolutely love what the Patriots have done the last two weeks following an embarrassing loss to the Jets. They are controlling the ball on offense and playing a defensive style that is reminiscent of the early 2000's Patriot squads; bend, don't break. The offense may have gotten a little harder with Taylor's foot surgery, but New England has the ability to make up for that with quick throws to Welker. While, I have been impressed with the Broncos results to date, I have not been impressed with the competition they have faced. If they continue producing against the Pats then I will change my tune.

Sunday 8:20pm game

IND (-3.5) @ TEN

The Colts have won their past 3 ATS and are 4-0 overall. They should handle this game easily I think. While the Titans don't have much chance in the result of this game (in my opinion), I do think that Chris Johnson has the potential for huge fantasy production against a small Colts D.

Monday 8:30pm game

NYJ (-1.5) @ MIA

Bet the under. Both of these teams are built around a strong defense and a clock killing, controlled running game. They went under in both matchups last season and have both improved their defenses, whether thru player or coach acquisitions

RECORD TO DATE:

LOCK OF THE WEEK: 2-2

OVERALL: 37-25

LAST WEEK: 8-6

AL CAPONE'S

Al CAPONE'S
By: Salomon Ella

There’s a pizza shop on Summer Street in Boston called Al Capone’s. Looking at it from the inside it really doesn’t distinguish itself as a pizza place from any other on the Eastern seaboard. It’s got the Frank Sinatra pictures on the walls, dozens of pizzas slowly chilling behind a glass partition, and some fat sweaty man ordering all the employees around and maintaining a healthy level of tension. All that’s great. But what really draws a crowd is their notorious 20 inch steak and cheese submarine sandwich. During my regular Monday afternoon hangover, I happened upon the restaurant on my lunch break and decided to finally grow a pair and try to finish one of these bad mother fuckers in one sitting. I’m writing this now, a week later, because I just finished pooping it out.

I ordered the large steak and cheese with onions, peppers and mushrooms to go because I like to catch up on the latest onion articles while eating lunch. When I ordered, the women asked me if I wanted Mayonnaise, lettuce and tomato on my steak and cheese. 2 things. First, I appreciate mayonnaise at times but do I want it on my massive grease explosion of a sandwich that’s already drenched in meat and cheese drippings? I can’t imagine what a standard portion of mayo on one of these sandwiches is but it has got to be enough to lube up all characters in a Sabrina Johnson film (Look it up, you won’t regret it)*. Second, who the fuck is putting lettuce and tomato on a steak and cheese sandwich? Let’s leave the salad for the ladies.

The sub is a monstrosity once the meat in sitting all cozy in its roll. Think Rosie O’Donnell’s arm. That’s about it in width and length. So of course I was a little disappointed when they cut it in two and wrapped the halves separately. I wanted people to see me walking down the road with it. Of course they would be thinking, “well if he’s carrying a sandwich like that, I’ve got to see what he’s got in his pants!”. And I would happily tell them. “I’ve got the change from the sandwich I just purchased at Al Capone’s sub shop in my pants. Not much more”.

So I sat down at my desk to dine. I like to begin in the middle of the sub and work my way to the end. This helps to minimize sandwich filling droppings and it makes for the first bight to be the most delicious. And this first bight was quite delicious. The vegetable to meat ratio was just right and the beef was neither sinewy nor shaved too thin. When you eat a steak and cheese, you want to believe there is actual steak in there, not ground beef with cheese sauce. Side note: I’ve been to Philadelphia and I’ve had the “famous” steak and cheese at Geno’s and I was not impressed. The Philadelphia steak and cheese is about as overhyped as the Dallas Cowboys, except instead of Tony Romo, you get an average sized roll filled with beef shavings and cheeze wiz. My Al Capone’s sandwich had a lot more personality. It was dynamic and juicy but stuck to the tenants of what makes a great steak and cheese. And that’s a shit ton of meat.

About 20 minutes after beginning this endeavor, it ended. The last 3 bights were tough to get down, but I triumphed. 2 hours later I sat at my desk, still uncomfortably full and shaking involuntarily. 2 hours after that I was still telling everyone who sits around me that I had completed the Al Capone’s 20 inch steak and cheese challenge for lunch. Despite them ignoring my boosting, I could smell the jealousy just permeating off them. It was embarrassing how badly they reeked of jealousy. Or maybe the stink was coming from my grease soaked pants.

*I looked it up. Sabrina Johnson is a Lady among women. I’d like to start my own Sabrina Johnson fan club. But instead of gathering for meetings we would of course meet weekly in an online chat room and pass our favorite clips to each other. Celebrating Sabrina requires a locked door.

Week Four NFL Picks

WEEK 4 NFL PICKS

LOCK OF THE WEEK

CIN (-5.5) @ CLE

First, a special thanks to reader Tim O. from New York for sending in this week's Lock of the Week image. Great work Tim. Second, if you were to have told me a few weeks ago that the Bengals would have been a Lock during this season I would have called you crazy. This just shows how much has changed in under a month. During that time, the Browns have scored only one offensive TD (a meaningless one in the final seconds of a blowout). During the same period, the Bengals have stepped up with an incredible defense the has thwarted its opponents rushing attacks. Add in a QB controversy and an injured starting RB for the Browns and this game has blowout written all over it.

Sunday 1pm

DET (+10.5) @ CHI

Ride those Lions while they're hot? Not exactly, but I still like the points here. In the last five meetings between these teams, the Bears have only won once by ten or more points. Also, the Bears haven't won a game this season by ten or more despite the hot start.

IND (-8.5) vs. SEA

I expect the Colts to go up early in this one and keep the game in control with a steady does of Donald Brown in the second half. The Seahawks are too banged up right now to compete on the road with a team of this caliber.

NYG (-9.5) @ KC

Ditto my analysis for the Colts/Hawks game.

WASH (-7.5) vs. TB

I'm actually not too confident in this pick at all. I've just really been enjoying my season of going against the Bucs every week.

JAX (+2.5) vs. TEN

What have the Titans shown us so far this season. They've proved that their defense is not nearly as good as it was last year and they've proved that Kerry Collins has no chance of being as effective as he was last season. How does that equal them being a road favorite??? I don't know either.

OAK (+9.5) @ HOU

I think that the Raiders match up very well with the Texans. They have Nnamdi Asomugha at corner to match up with Johnson and take away the need most teams have to double him. Once you have Johnson covered, suddenly the top weapons of Slaton and Daniels are much easier to contain. Also, the Raiders big problem this year has been offense. Well, the Texans defense is to bad offense as chicken soup is to the common cold. Houston has allowed a 100 yard rusher in each game so far this year.

NE (-2.5) vs. BAL

This game is a coin flip and could be a preview of the AFC Championship game. I'll go with the Pats due to experience and the home field.

Sunday 4:05 pm

NYJ (+6.5) @ NO

Tough call on this one but I think the Revis will neutralize some of the incredible passing attack of Brees and the Saints might have to grind it out with Pierre Thomas to take this one. Should stay a close game unless there is some late scoring.

MIA (+1.5) vs. BUF

There are an awful lot of home underdogs this week and that is music to my ears. During the first three weeks the most positive thing the Bills have done is beat up on lowly Tampa and they are a road favorite against a team with a good defense that can run the ball? Add in the brewing TO controversy and I expect the Fish to handle business at home.

Sunday 4:15pm

DEN (+3.5) vs. DAL

I know the Broncos haven't beaten the cream of the crop on their way to a 3-0 record, but who have the Cowboys beaten that's any better to be a road favorite? I think this is Vegas taking advantage of Cowboys fans.

SF (-10.5) vs STL

the 49ers are 3-0 ATS. Ride her til she bucks you.

Sunday 8:20pm

SD (+6.5) @ PIT

The Steelers seem to have fallen into a post-Super Bowl hangover which is good news for the rest of the AFC. Maybe they'll show something at home, but the Chargers are too talented to bet against when given that many points.

Monday 8:30pm

MIN (-3.5) vs. GB

Count me among those who think Brett is looking to really beat the piss out of his old team. Still, he won't have nearly as much to do with the win as, of course AP, but also the Vikings defense. Remember that this Packers O-Line gave up 7 sacks against the Bengals. Now they are facing a more talented front four including world-class pass rusher Jared Allen. I still expect a high scoring game, but I don't think the Packers will be able to hang when it comes to the end.

RECORD TO DATE:

LOCK OF THE WEEK 2-1

OVERALL 29-19

LAST WEEK 11-5