LOCK OF THE WEEK
CIN (-5.5) @ CLE
First, a special thanks to reader Tim O. from New York for sending in this week's Lock of the 
Week image. Great work Tim. Second, if you were to have told me a few weeks ago that the Bengals would have been a Lock during this season I would have called you crazy. This just shows how much has changed in under a month. During that time, the Browns have scored only one offensive TD (a meaningless one in the final seconds of a blowout). During the same period, the Bengals have stepped up with an incredible defense the has thwarted its opponents rushing attacks. Add in a QB controversy and an injured starting RB for the Browns and this game has blowout written all over it.
Week image. Great work Tim. Second, if you were to have told me a few weeks ago that the Bengals would have been a Lock during this season I would have called you crazy. This just shows how much has changed in under a month. During that time, the Browns have scored only one offensive TD (a meaningless one in the final seconds of a blowout). During the same period, the Bengals have stepped up with an incredible defense the has thwarted its opponents rushing attacks. Add in a QB controversy and an injured starting RB for the Browns and this game has blowout written all over it. Sunday 1pm
DET (+10.5) @ CHI
Ride those Lions while they're hot? Not exactly, but I still like the points here. In the last five meetings between these teams, the Bears have only won once by ten or more points. Also, the Bears haven't won a game this season by ten or more despite the hot start.
IND (-8.5) vs. SEA
I expect the Colts to go up early in this one and keep the game in control with a steady does of Donald Brown in the second half. The Seahawks are too banged up right now to compete on the road with a team of this caliber.
NYG (-9.5) @ KC
Ditto my analysis for the Colts/Hawks game.
WASH (-7.5) vs. TB
I'm actually not too confident in this pick at all. I've just really been enjoying my season of going against the Bucs every week.
JAX (+2.5) vs. TEN
What have the Titans shown us so far this season. They've proved that their defense is not nearly as good as it was last year and they've proved that Kerry Collins has no chance of being as effective as he was last season. How does that equal them being a road favorite??? I don't know either.
OAK (+9.5) @ HOU
I think that the Raiders match up very well with the Texans. They have Nnamdi Asomugha at corner to match up with Johnson and take away the need most teams have to double him. Once you have Johnson covered, suddenly the top weapons of Slaton and Daniels are much easier to contain. Also, the Raiders big problem this year has been offense. Well, the Texans defense is to bad offense as chicken soup is to the common cold. Houston has allowed a 100 yard rusher in each game so far this year.
NE (-2.5) vs. BAL
This game is a coin flip and could be a preview of the AFC Championship game. I'll go with the Pats due to experience and the home field.
Sunday 4:05 pm
NYJ (+6.5) @ NO
Tough call on this one but I think the Revis will neutralize some of the incredible passing attack of Brees and the Saints might have to grind it out with Pierre Thomas to take this one. Should stay a close game unless there is some late scoring.
MIA (+1.5) vs. BUF
There are an awful lot of home underdogs this week and that is music to my ears. During the first three weeks the most positive thing the Bills have done is beat up on lowly Tampa and they are a road favorite against a team with a good defense that can run the ball? Add in the brewing TO controversy and I expect the Fish to handle business at home.
Sunday 4:15pm
DEN (+3.5) vs. DAL
I know the Broncos haven't beaten the cream of the crop on their way to a 3-0 record, but who have the Cowboys beaten that's any better to be a road favorite? I think this is Vegas taking advantage of Cowboys fans.
SF (-10.5) vs STL
the 49ers are 3-0 ATS. Ride her til she bucks you.
Sunday 8:20pm
SD (+6.5) @ PIT
The Steelers seem to have fallen into a post-Super Bowl hangover which is good news for the rest of the AFC. Maybe they'll show something at home, but the Chargers are too talented to bet against when given that many points.
Monday 8:30pm
MIN (-3.5) vs. GB
Count me among those who think Brett is looking to really beat the piss out of his old team. Still, he won't have nearly as much to do with the win as, of course AP, but also the Vikings defense. Remember that this Packers O-Line gave up 7 sacks against the Bengals. Now they are facing a more talented front four including world-class pass rusher Jared Allen. I still expect a high scoring game, but I don't think the Packers will be able to hang when it comes to the end.
RECORD TO DATE:
LOCK OF THE WEEK 2-1
OVERALL 29-19
LAST WEEK 11-5
No comments:
Post a Comment