WEEK 11 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
PIT (-9.5) vs. KC
Before last week's surprise loss to the Bengals, the Steelers were finally starting to look like the 
defending Super Bowl champions. They had taken 5 straight by 8 or more points and 3 of those games were against division leaders. Even including last week's loss the defense has looked dominant (don't forget the Bengals got their big score on a kickoff return) and has been able to rattle the opposing teams' QBs. The Chiefs are coming off a win, but can you really get excited about a W over the Raiders? They have been a constant in the news with the Johnson controversy, recently suspended top offensive threats Bowe for drug violations, and are out of playmakers. I think that this one could easily be a shutout and that the Steelers will put up around 28 points. LOCK DOWN!
defending Super Bowl champions. They had taken 5 straight by 8 or more points and 3 of those games were against division leaders. Even including last week's loss the defense has looked dominant (don't forget the Bengals got their big score on a kickoff return) and has been able to rattle the opposing teams' QBs. The Chiefs are coming off a win, but can you really get excited about a W over the Raiders? They have been a constant in the news with the Johnson controversy, recently suspended top offensive threats Bowe for drug violations, and are out of playmakers. I think that this one could easily be a shutout and that the Steelers will put up around 28 points. LOCK DOWN!Thursday 8:20pm Game
CAR (-3.5) vs. MIA
The loss of Ronnie Brown will eliminate a lot of the Wildcat formations in the Dolphins playbook which will put a lot of pressure on young QB Chad Henne. I think that with the proper weapons he would be able to hold his own, but Ginn and the rest of the WRs have shown Miami very little and upgrading that position should be their number one priority during the offseason. Carolina seems to be going in the right direction at this time in the season. They have won 4 of the last 6 and have also taken 3 in a row ATS. Additionally, I love promoting the overs in games played on short weeks and this one shouldn't be any different.
Sunday 1:00pm Games
DET (-3.5) vs. CLE
Yikes. Would I rather step in horse shit or dog shit? That's what I feel like picking between these two so let's just take the home team and move on...
GB (-6.5) vs. SF
The 49ers have lost 5 of their last 7 games and the only two wins were against the Rams and against the Bears in a game that Jay Cutler handed to them on a silver platter. The team that we saw in the early weeks is far from the one we see now and the offense is so reliant on Gore's running that I don't see why any defensive coordinator wouldn't put 8 guys in the box to stuff it. I also feel as though the Packers are getting ready to go on a run after their impressive defensive effort against the Cowboys last week. We knew that they had an above average offensive unit but if their defense can play physical like that, look out.
WASH (+11.5) @ DAL
Despite Washington's shortcomings this season, they have only been outscored by more than 11 points this season one time. hey play a tough defense that keeps them in a lot of low scoring games. Also, I'd expect any division game with a rivalry like this one to remain close throughout and the Redskins are 6-2 ATS versus the Cowboys in their last 8 games played.
ATL (+6.5) @ NYG
This is a very tricky game to bet on. On the one hand, the Giants are coming off of a bye week, playing at home against a warm weather team, and are generally considered a more talented squad. On the other hand they have looked terrible recently, losing 4 straight games by a total of 52 points. Even with the Turner injury, I'm still going to side with the Falcons who have a good mix of run and pass and also hold a 6-3 record ATS this year. But honestly, I wouldn't bet this game.
NO (-11.5) @ TB
There's no way that I would bet against an 9-0 team against a 1-8 team unless the spread was in the 20's. Brees should have a field day against this defense and the ball-hawking Saints defense will force rookie QB Josh Freeman into numerous turnovers.
JAX (-8.5) vs. BUF
The Jaguars are quietly sneaking into playoff contention with a dominant rushing game complimented by a defense that is just good enough. Granted the competition they have beaten hasn't been the top of the league with victories over the Chiefs, Rams, Titans and Jets would indicate, but the Bills aren't better than any of those teams. I could easily see MJD rushing for 150 and two scores, carrying many fantasy owners to victory.
IND (+0.5) @ BAL
Wait!? A 9-0 team is getting points. This is incredible. The main argument to bet against Indy is that the Ravens are at home. Well, the Colts are 4-0 ATS in road games this season and have won six straight against the Ravens dating back to 2002 (this includes 3 games in Baltimore). I love this bet.
MIN (-11.5) vs. SEA
Minnesota has no problem blowing teams out this year so the line should not scare you. In fact, they have won 5 of 9 games this year by 12 or more points. Also, the Seahawks have played 4 road games so far this season and have lost by double digits in each one. Not surprisingly they are 0-4 ATS on the road this year. Trust in AP.
Sunday 4:05pm Game
ARZ (-8.5) @ STL
In another edition of "stats don't lie", the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS away from Arizona this year. Considering that they are generally considered a bad road team, this statistic surprised me. Another indicator for this game is that Arizona has won 5 straight against the Rams dating back to 2006.
Sunday 4:15pm Games
SD (-2.5) @ DEN
The Broncos are reeling, having lost 3 straight games by double digits. Despite the best efforts of McDaniels, the defense has been suspect recently and the offense doesn't have the firepower outside of Marshall to make up for this deficit. Meanwhile, the Chargers are hitting their stride with back-to-back impressive showings against the Giants and Eagles. Also worth noting in this fierce rivalry is that these teams have traditionally played very high scoring games, averaging 69 points per over the last 3 meetings.
CIN (-9.5) @ OAK
Its the Raiders so do I even need to explain this one? They average fewer than 10 points/game and haven't scored 20 since week one. Even though Russell is a big contributor to these problems I don't think he's the only one so the QB switch shouldn't suddenly give this offense life.
NE (-10.5) vs. NYJ
question: How many crying fat fucks does it take for me to refer to an entire team as a group of pussies?
answer: Just One.
Even leaving aside what a twat Rex looks like, I would expect the 
Patriots to come out and beat down any opponent they face. Coach Belichick has spent the whole week answering questions about his ability to coach anymore and I think that the Patriots come out and start the game by running strong against the overaggressive New York Pussies pass rush. This should help open up the passing game and I think that Belichick will not take his foot off the gas until they clock stops. Pats in a rout. I like the over here as well.
Patriots to come out and beat down any opponent they face. Coach Belichick has spent the whole week answering questions about his ability to coach anymore and I think that the Patriots come out and start the game by running strong against the overaggressive New York Pussies pass rush. This should help open up the passing game and I think that Belichick will not take his foot off the gas until they clock stops. Pats in a rout. I like the over here as well. Sunday 8:20pm Game
CHI (+3.5) vs. PHI
Bears should have the upper hand being at home in front of a loud crowd for a night game and are 3-1 at home ATS. The Eagles this year are a bit of a mystery to me. They have seemed impressive at times, but if you look back at their schedule the only win over a team above .500 is against the Giants and suddenly that doesn't look as impressive as it did a month ago. I don't trust McNabb to carry the offense with Westbrook out. Of course, Cutler could end up throwing half a dozen picks again and ruin some people's evening.
Monday 8:30pm Game
TEN (+4.5) @ HOU
Can I say Vincanity??? Since taking over for Collins he has led the team to a 3-0 record, despite the defense still not playing as was expected of them. He can do anything! Also, the Texans are only 1-3 ATS at home and I'm not sure how this young squad will handle the pressure of playing at home in a nationally televised game. Vince can play under the lights almost as well as he can turn crappy merchandise.
I was able to charge through my first nine tacos without my hesitation, but after number ten, things got hairy. Check out the picture below – that’s me realizing that taco number ten is exponentially more disgusting than taco number five. Upon said realization, I made my first pilgrimage to the porcelain god.