LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Washington
REST OF WEEK 13:
1pm games:
BUFFALO (-6.5) vs. San Francisco
BALTIMORE (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) @ Cleveland
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ Green Bay
MIAMI (-7.5) @ St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) vs. New Orleans
4pm games:
ATLANTA (+5.5) @ San Diego
NEW YORK JETS (-7.5) vs. Denver
OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh
8pm games:
CHICAGO (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Monday Night:
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
THANKSGIVING DAY SPECIAL!!!
12:30 game:
TENNESSEE (-11.5) @ Detroit
Worst record in the league vs. the best record in the league. Can we please just stop for a moment and give the schedule makers a round of applause for making our Holiday so much fun?! Those assholes. The image to the right is not only our favorite Thanksgiving feast, but also my opinion of the schedule-makers.
OK, to the game. Despite last week humbling to the Jets, the Titans remain 9-1 ATS the spread this season and that includes a perfect 5-0 record ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Lions are still the Lions. Specifically, they are 0-5 ATS the spread at home. Easy pick here and expect the Titans to control possession of the ball for about 40 minutes with their strong running game.
4:15 game:
DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle
Seems as though the Cowboys have finally gotten things rolling with Tony Romo back at the helm. Last week's game against the 49ers wasn't a complete laugher only after San Fran scored two late and meaningless TDs. I expect to see the home team put on a good show for the fans and strengthen their playoff position against a team with nothing left to play for. The only thing that will stop the 'Boys is if Jessica Simpson puts on a bad pre-game show and Romo misses the game consoling her.
8:15 game:
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. Arizona
Fools Gold Alert! Everyone's reaction to this game is that the Cardinals should be able to control it because of their superior record and Philadelphia's recent struggles. However, the stats don't lie and this season West Coast teams are a combined 0-15 when playing in an Eastern Time Zone. Specifically, the last time Arizona went east, they lost 35-56 and gave up 6 TD passes to Brett Favre's corpse. Especially with the short week I would expect the travel to be even more of a factor. Also, the Cardinals have not won a game (or covered a spread) against a team with a .500 or better record in a month and a half.
Other Advice:
Short weeks tend to favor the offesnse. I would seriously consider the overs in all these games. Every week that there has been a Thursday game this season (with the exception of week one which doesn't count because it isn't a short week of preparation) the Over has been the winning bet.
TENNESSEE (-11.5) @ Detroit
Worst record in the league vs. the best record in the league. Can we please just stop for a moment and give the schedule makers a round of applause for making our Holiday so much fun?! Those assholes. The image to the right is not only our favorite Thanksgiving feast, but also my opinion of the schedule-makers.
OK, to the game. Despite last week humbling to the Jets, the Titans remain 9-1 ATS the spread this season and that includes a perfect 5-0 record ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Lions are still the Lions. Specifically, they are 0-5 ATS the spread at home. Easy pick here and expect the Titans to control possession of the ball for about 40 minutes with their strong running game.
4:15 game:
DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle
Seems as though the Cowboys have finally gotten things rolling with Tony Romo back at the helm. Last week's game against the 49ers wasn't a complete laugher only after San Fran scored two late and meaningless TDs. I expect to see the home team put on a good show for the fans and strengthen their playoff position against a team with nothing left to play for. The only thing that will stop the 'Boys is if Jessica Simpson puts on a bad pre-game show and Romo misses the game consoling her.
8:15 game:
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. Arizona
Fools Gold Alert! Everyone's reaction to this game is that the Cardinals should be able to control it because of their superior record and Philadelphia's recent struggles. However, the stats don't lie and this season West Coast teams are a combined 0-15 when playing in an Eastern Time Zone. Specifically, the last time Arizona went east, they lost 35-56 and gave up 6 TD passes to Brett Favre's corpse. Especially with the short week I would expect the travel to be even more of a factor. Also, the Cardinals have not won a game (or covered a spread) against a team with a .500 or better record in a month and a half.
Other Advice:
Short weeks tend to favor the offesnse. I would seriously consider the overs in all these games. Every week that there has been a Thursday game this season (with the exception of week one which doesn't count because it isn't a short week of preparation) the Over has been the winning bet.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
Thanks to all the loyal readers who submitted Pictures and Images to Sweet Action. The winning submission was e-mailed by SEAN from ARIZONA.
CONGRATULATIONS SEAN!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
CAROLINA (+1.5) @ Atlanta
The Panthers run defense is too good for Turner to get going and they will have to rely on rookie QB Ryan for its points. Not that he doesn't have the ability, but it seems as though teams are starting to find a way to confuse him, especially late in games. I'm looking for a late season slide for the Falcons. It looks like the clock has hit midnight for this Cinderella.
REST OF WEEK 12:
Thursday night:
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Steelers have covered 10.5 against the Bengals in three straight matchups including a 38-10 thrashing in October of this year. The running game of the Bengals will be shut down against the tough Steelers D and they will have to rely on a passing game that is without big-time weapon Chad Ocho Cinco. FWP should run for 100+ against the porous Cincy run D that allows 131 yards rushing per game.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Houston
Just as important as the spread is to remember to take the over. Cleveland's offense is catching up to speed, scoring 27, 30 and 29 points in the last three games. Meanwhile, that Texans D has allowed ridiculously high totals of 28, 41 and 33 points during the same three week span. Nuff said!
SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ Dallas
I'm not convinced that the Cowboys are back after a close win over a depleted Washington squad. Double-digit spread seems way to high for this historic rivalry.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Detroit
Even the devastating news that the Bucs received this week that Earnest Graham's ankle will cause him to miss the remainder of the season will not be enough to slow them against the woeful Lions. Detroit is last in the league, allowing over 170 rushing yards per game. With Cadillac still not healthy enough to play, this means that Warrick Dunn is a must start in all fantasy leagues. On the other side of the ball, expect the Tampa D to have loads of fun with Daunte "the turnover machine" Culpepper.
NEW YORK JETS (+5.5) @ Tennessee
The Jets are picking up momentum each week with each big win and while the Titans continue to win, they seem to be getting into closer contests as teams are focusing on stuffing the run and forcing Kerry Collins to beat them. I'm not convinced that this will get the Jets the win, but I think the smart play is to take them with the points.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. Buffalo
The Bills are in a free fall and despite their abysmal record, the Chiefs are actually 5-5 ATS and have a rested and healthy Larry Johnson to go with Tyler Thigpen who, again surprisingly, is one of the hottest QBs in the league. I'm taking the ML on KC at home and I suggest you do the same.
CHICAGO (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Chicago has hit the first real rough patch of their season and this week's bye couldn't come at a better time. Well I mean, sure they are playing...but against the Rams you can count rushing for 200 yards and scoring 35 points with little trouble. Perhaps if Steven Jackson was healthy than St. Louis could have an argument to cover, but he is made of glass.
NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) @ Miami
The Patriots have not been swept in the season series by the Dolphins since 2000 and I don't expect that stat to change now. Plus, Belichick having a long 10 day week to prepare for the Wildcat offense that confused them so much in the first matchup is an obvious advantage. Take the ML, since 1.5 points is useless.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Tricky game. Two underachieving teams that are both 3-7 ATS and coming off losses. In this case I always go with the home team.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia
McNabb knows the NFL rules like Burkhardt knows statutory rape rules. They both plead ignorance and they will both one day be the center of a media circus. The difference is that McNabb's will cause his already struggling team to be further distracted on a road matchup where they would have struggled anyways.
4pm games:
DENVER (-9.5) vs. Oakland
The only thing that the Raiders could do to get me to watch them this season is if they let Al Davis play RB for a few plays and even then I'd only watch to see that cranky old fuck get decapitated. Until this happens, I will pick whoever they play, especially when its a high powered offense coming off a huge road win.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Giants are still the class of the NFC and until the Cardinals beat a good opponent this season (they haven't, and I don't count the Cowboys as a good opponent at this point) I have to pick against them in every game like this. Please note that I would change this point of view if they get a W this weekend.
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Washington
The Skins struggled in a prime time matchup last week against the Cowboys, and I expect more of the same against the improving Seahawks and their offense that finally seems healthy.
8pm game:
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) @ San Diego
The Colts appear to be rounding into form at just the right time in the season, while this year looks like a lost cause for the ultra-talented Chargers. Colts love prime-time and this O is picking up steam.
Monday Night:
GREEN BAY (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Packers looked incredible last week in their 37-3 dismantling of the Bears a week ago. Confidence is high in offensive studs Grant and Rodgers and will rise in what should be a very entertaining and high scoring game.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 7-4
Happy Gambling!!!
(EDITOR'S NOTE: this posting was made while recovering from surgery and under the influence of lots of painkillers. If anything doesn't make sense and you would like to complain...then go fuck yourself!)
CONGRATULATIONS SEAN!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
CAROLINA (+1.5) @ Atlanta
The Panthers run defense is too good for Turner to get going and they will have to rely on rookie QB Ryan for its points. Not that he doesn't have the ability, but it seems as though teams are starting to find a way to confuse him, especially late in games. I'm looking for a late season slide for the Falcons. It looks like the clock has hit midnight for this Cinderella.
REST OF WEEK 12:
Thursday night:
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Steelers have covered 10.5 against the Bengals in three straight matchups including a 38-10 thrashing in October of this year. The running game of the Bengals will be shut down against the tough Steelers D and they will have to rely on a passing game that is without big-time weapon Chad Ocho Cinco. FWP should run for 100+ against the porous Cincy run D that allows 131 yards rushing per game.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Houston
Just as important as the spread is to remember to take the over. Cleveland's offense is catching up to speed, scoring 27, 30 and 29 points in the last three games. Meanwhile, that Texans D has allowed ridiculously high totals of 28, 41 and 33 points during the same three week span. Nuff said!
SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ Dallas
I'm not convinced that the Cowboys are back after a close win over a depleted Washington squad. Double-digit spread seems way to high for this historic rivalry.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Detroit
Even the devastating news that the Bucs received this week that Earnest Graham's ankle will cause him to miss the remainder of the season will not be enough to slow them against the woeful Lions. Detroit is last in the league, allowing over 170 rushing yards per game. With Cadillac still not healthy enough to play, this means that Warrick Dunn is a must start in all fantasy leagues. On the other side of the ball, expect the Tampa D to have loads of fun with Daunte "the turnover machine" Culpepper.
NEW YORK JETS (+5.5) @ Tennessee
The Jets are picking up momentum each week with each big win and while the Titans continue to win, they seem to be getting into closer contests as teams are focusing on stuffing the run and forcing Kerry Collins to beat them. I'm not convinced that this will get the Jets the win, but I think the smart play is to take them with the points.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. Buffalo
The Bills are in a free fall and despite their abysmal record, the Chiefs are actually 5-5 ATS and have a rested and healthy Larry Johnson to go with Tyler Thigpen who, again surprisingly, is one of the hottest QBs in the league. I'm taking the ML on KC at home and I suggest you do the same.
CHICAGO (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Chicago has hit the first real rough patch of their season and this week's bye couldn't come at a better time. Well I mean, sure they are playing...but against the Rams you can count rushing for 200 yards and scoring 35 points with little trouble. Perhaps if Steven Jackson was healthy than St. Louis could have an argument to cover, but he is made of glass.
NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) @ Miami
The Patriots have not been swept in the season series by the Dolphins since 2000 and I don't expect that stat to change now. Plus, Belichick having a long 10 day week to prepare for the Wildcat offense that confused them so much in the first matchup is an obvious advantage. Take the ML, since 1.5 points is useless.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Tricky game. Two underachieving teams that are both 3-7 ATS and coming off losses. In this case I always go with the home team.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia
McNabb knows the NFL rules like Burkhardt knows statutory rape rules. They both plead ignorance and they will both one day be the center of a media circus. The difference is that McNabb's will cause his already struggling team to be further distracted on a road matchup where they would have struggled anyways.
4pm games:
DENVER (-9.5) vs. Oakland
The only thing that the Raiders could do to get me to watch them this season is if they let Al Davis play RB for a few plays and even then I'd only watch to see that cranky old fuck get decapitated. Until this happens, I will pick whoever they play, especially when its a high powered offense coming off a huge road win.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Giants are still the class of the NFC and until the Cardinals beat a good opponent this season (they haven't, and I don't count the Cowboys as a good opponent at this point) I have to pick against them in every game like this. Please note that I would change this point of view if they get a W this weekend.
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Washington
The Skins struggled in a prime time matchup last week against the Cowboys, and I expect more of the same against the improving Seahawks and their offense that finally seems healthy.
8pm game:
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) @ San Diego
The Colts appear to be rounding into form at just the right time in the season, while this year looks like a lost cause for the ultra-talented Chargers. Colts love prime-time and this O is picking up steam.
Monday Night:
GREEN BAY (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Packers looked incredible last week in their 37-3 dismantling of the Bears a week ago. Confidence is high in offensive studs Grant and Rodgers and will rise in what should be a very entertaining and high scoring game.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 7-4
Happy Gambling!!!
(EDITOR'S NOTE: this posting was made while recovering from surgery and under the influence of lots of painkillers. If anything doesn't make sense and you would like to complain...then go fuck yourself!)
Thursday, November 13, 2008
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
ARIZONA (-3.5) @ Seattle
ARIZONA (-3.5) @ Seattle
REST OF WEEK 11:
Thursday Night:
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. New York Jets
1pm games:
DENVER (+5.5) @ Atlanta
PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
CHICAGO (+5.5) @ Green Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) vs. Houston
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) vs. New Orleans
MIAMI (-10.5) vs. Oakland
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. Baltimore
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
DETROIT (-14.5) @ Carolina
TENNESSEE (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
4pm games:
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) vs. St. Louis
PITTSBURGH (-4.5) vs. San Diego
8 pm game:
WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. Dallas
Monday Night:
CLEVELAND (+4.5) @ Buffalo
Monday, November 10, 2008
READER CONTEST
***Attention all loyal Lock of the Week readers!***
For the NFL's Week 12 (11/23), Sweet Action will post a lock picture, drawing or design of one lucky reader in its critically acclaimed Lock of the Week section. It is a great chance for you as a reader to have your image seen by literally 5 people worldwide!!!
Please send your submissions to: MLHolcomb10@gmail.com and include the title "Lock Contest". The winner will be chosen based on creativity, obscurity and most importantly, humor.
Prize Information:
GRAND PRIZE
The Grand Price Winner will receive a personalized autographed photo* from Lock of the Week creator Matthew Holcomb. Prize will be mailed to your home address within 7-10 business days of Week 12 posting.
CONSOLATION PRIZE
The Consolation Prize for the runner-ups of the Lock Contest will receive an enthusiastic high-five!**
*approximate retail price of Autographed picture is $4.20
**approximate retail price of an enthusiastic high-five is $0.01
For the NFL's Week 12 (11/23), Sweet Action will post a lock picture, drawing or design of one lucky reader in its critically acclaimed Lock of the Week section. It is a great chance for you as a reader to have your image seen by literally 5 people worldwide!!!
Please send your submissions to: MLHolcomb10@gmail.com and include the title "Lock Contest". The winner will be chosen based on creativity, obscurity and most importantly, humor.
Prize Information:
GRAND PRIZE
The Grand Price Winner will receive a personalized autographed photo* from Lock of the Week creator Matthew Holcomb. Prize will be mailed to your home address within 7-10 business days of Week 12 posting.
CONSOLATION PRIZE
The Consolation Prize for the runner-ups of the Lock Contest will receive an enthusiastic high-five!**
*approximate retail price of Autographed picture is $4.20
**approximate retail price of an enthusiastic high-five is $0.01
Friday, November 7, 2008
WEEK 10 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA (-9.5) @ Oakland
Oakland has lost 4 of its last 5 games by 10 or more points and remain in turmoil after the firing of Coach Kiffin a few weeks ago. Releasing DeAngelo Hall this week only half a season into a huge contract was a sign that the Raiders have given up all hope and are trying to get the top pick in June's draft. If you need more to convince you of how bad this team is then read these statistics from last week's game at Atlanta: 0 Points; 10 Passing Yards; 67 Rushing Yards; 3 First Downs.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are undefeated at home, all while beating some top NFC teams in Chicago, Atlanta and New Orleans. Expect Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams to combine for at least 200 yards rushing. Lock this one UP!!!
REST OF WEEK 10:
1 pm games:
ATLANTA (-0.5) vs. New Orleans
For what its worth, no NFC South team has lost a home game this year againsta divisional foe.TENNESSEE (-3.0) @ Chicago
These two teams playa similar style of play, but one of them does it much better. 'Nuff Said.DETROIT (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville
Jacksonville allowed Cincinnati to earn its first win of the season and I expect Detroit to beat the Jaguars straight up at home and get their first win as well.MIAMI (-9.5) vs. Seattle
If you have Dolphins in fantasy then start them. Even Chad Pennington. MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs. Green Bay
NEW ENGLND (-3.5) vs. Buffalo
NEW YORK JETS (-8.5) vs. St. Louis
BALTIMORE (+1.5) @ Houston
4 pm games:
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis
KANSAS CITY (+15.5) @ San Diego
8 pm game:
NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) @ Philadelphia
Monday Night:
ARIZONA (-9.5) vs. San Francisco
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