CONGRATULATIONS SEAN!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
CAROLINA (+1.5) @ Atlanta
The Panthers run defense is too good for Turner to get going and they will have to rely on rookie QB Ryan for its points. Not that he doesn't have the ability, but it seems as though teams are starting to find a way to confuse him, especially late in games. I'm looking for a late season slide for the Falcons. It looks like the clock has hit midnight for this Cinderella.
REST OF WEEK 12:
Thursday night:
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Steelers have covered 10.5 against the Bengals in three straight matchups including a 38-10 thrashing in October of this year. The running game of the Bengals will be shut down against the tough Steelers D and they will have to rely on a passing game that is without big-time weapon Chad Ocho Cinco. FWP should run for 100+ against the porous Cincy run D that allows 131 yards rushing per game.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Houston
Just as important as the spread is to remember to take the over. Cleveland's offense is catching up to speed, scoring 27, 30 and 29 points in the last three games. Meanwhile, that Texans D has allowed ridiculously high totals of 28, 41 and 33 points during the same three week span. Nuff said!
SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ Dallas
I'm not convinced that the Cowboys are back after a close win over a depleted Washington squad. Double-digit spread seems way to high for this historic rivalry.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Detroit
Even the devastating news that the Bucs received this week that Earnest Graham's ankle will cause him to miss the remainder of the season will not be enough to slow them against the woeful Lions. Detroit is last in the league, allowing over 170 rushing yards per game. With Cadillac still not healthy enough to play, this means that Warrick Dunn is a must start in all fantasy leagues. On the other side of the ball, expect the Tampa D to have loads of fun with Daunte "the turnover machine" Culpepper.
NEW YORK JETS (+5.5) @ Tennessee
The Jets are picking up momentum each week with each big win and while the Titans continue to win, they seem to be getting into closer contests as teams are focusing on stuffing the run and forcing Kerry Collins to beat them. I'm not convinced that this will get the Jets the win, but I think the smart play is to take them with the points.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. Buffalo
The Bills are in a free fall and despite their abysmal record, the Chiefs are actually 5-5 ATS and have a rested and healthy Larry Johnson to go with Tyler Thigpen who, again surprisingly, is one of the hottest QBs in the league. I'm taking the ML on KC at home and I suggest you do the same.
CHICAGO (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Chicago has hit the first real rough patch of their season and this week's bye couldn't come at a better time. Well I mean, sure they are playing...but against the Rams you can count rushing for 200 yards and scoring 35 points with little trouble. Perhaps if Steven Jackson was healthy than St. Louis could have an argument to cover, but he is made of glass.
NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) @ Miami
The Patriots have not been swept in the season series by the Dolphins since 2000 and I don't expect that stat to change now. Plus, Belichick having a long 10 day week to prepare for the Wildcat offense that confused them so much in the first matchup is an obvious advantage. Take the ML, since 1.5 points is useless.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Tricky game. Two underachieving teams that are both 3-7 ATS and coming off losses. In this case I always go with the home team.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia
McNabb knows the NFL rules like Burkhardt knows statutory rape rules. They both plead ignorance and they will both one day be the center of a media circus. The difference is that McNabb's will cause his already struggling team to be further distracted on a road matchup where they would have struggled anyways.
4pm games:
DENVER (-9.5) vs. Oakland
The only thing that the Raiders could do to get me to watch them this season is if they let Al Davis play RB for a few plays and even then I'd only watch to see that cranky old fuck get decapitated. Until this happens, I will pick whoever they play, especially when its a high powered offense coming off a huge road win.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Giants are still the class of the NFC and until the Cardinals beat a good opponent this season (they haven't, and I don't count the Cowboys as a good opponent at this point) I have to pick against them in every game like this. Please note that I would change this point of view if they get a W this weekend.
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Washington
The Skins struggled in a prime time matchup last week against the Cowboys, and I expect more of the same against the improving Seahawks and their offense that finally seems healthy.
8pm game:
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) @ San Diego
The Colts appear to be rounding into form at just the right time in the season, while this year looks like a lost cause for the ultra-talented Chargers. Colts love prime-time and this O is picking up steam.
Monday Night:
GREEN BAY (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Packers looked incredible last week in their 37-3 dismantling of the Bears a week ago. Confidence is high in offensive studs Grant and Rodgers and will rise in what should be a very entertaining and high scoring game.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 7-4
Happy Gambling!!!
(EDITOR'S NOTE: this posting was made while recovering from surgery and under the influence of lots of painkillers. If anything doesn't make sense and you would like to complain...then go fuck yourself!)
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