Week Two NFL Picks

WEEK TWO NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK

PIT (-2.5) @ CHI

The Defending Champs have covered a spread of -2.5 nine times in their last ten games. This includes difficult games including last season's Superbowl run and regular season matchups against powerhouses like New England, Tennessee, Baltimore and Dallas. Meanwhile, the Bears have now played four consecutive games where they have not covered. What I'm saying is that this spread is way to low for a Pittsburgh team with those type of results playing against a Bears team that clearly hasn't gelled together with its new QB and just suffered the devastating loss to its best defensive player. So make your bet and count your money. This one reminds me of Mandy Moore because its sweet like candy! LOCK IT UP!

Sunday 1pm games

MIN (-9.5) @ DET

Expect huge fantasy production from Peterson this week. Also, expect big numbers from Favre. I expect Childress will try to get him more involved against a soft defense to help him gain some momentum and the confidence of his teammates for the rest of the season. As with every Lions game until they prove differently...take the over as well.

GB (-9.5) vs. CIN

The Bengals have a lot of talk from Chad Ochocinco this week about doing a Lambeau Leap when he scores a TD. I don't see that happening unless its a meaningless score late in a blowout. The Packers sputtered out of the gate against a solid Bears defense last week, but once they got it going they looked sharp. I loved the accuracy and decision making from Rodgers as well. When the O was struggling early he didn't try to force plays which let him stay away from turnovers.

TEN (-7.5) vs. HOU

I watched the Texans get manhandled by the Jets last week from start to finish and really was disappointed. For a team that was hyped so heavily coming out of the preseason they were awful. Now, they play a team that is more physical and more talented than the Jets and they have to play them in their own building. The Titans have also had the extra few days to prepare for this matchup since they opened the season on Thursday.

OAK (+3.5) @ KC

The Raiders impressed me last week with their defense. I knew they had talent and it looks as though the missing piece was a leader like Seymour to pull the squad together. I still think that their offense will be bad until they give up on JaMarcus (or move him to another position) but against the Chiefs that won't be too much of a factor.

NE (-5.5) @ NYJ

Keep talking Ryan. Keep talking Rhodes. And while you're talking, try to ignore the fact that the Patriots have won EIGHT straight games at the Meadowlands. After the ninth straight please prepare yourself to kiss our Superbowl rings.

NO (+1.5) @ PHI

I don't really know what to make of this game. Two of the best looking teams based on week one performances. I side with the Saints for two reasons. 1)The McNabb injury. We still don't know if he's going to play and I don't trust Kolb; 2)Some of the Eagles' scores were on fluky plays. They got a TD on a punt return and their defense set up a lot of the other scores. Not that its a bad thing to have a defense set up scores, its just that without Delhomme tossing up 4 quick picks* I'm not convinced they didn't already have their best showing of the season.

ATL (-6.5) vs. CAR
Speaking of Jake, this pick is a vote of no confidence in him. The Panthers look about as bright as the guy to the right when they gave him $20M guaranteed this offseason. Funny story: I just went to google to type in Jake Delhomme to search for images. The two options that google automatically populated were Jake Delhomme Wife and Jake Delhomme Crying. Two things and one is crying. hahahahaha.

WASH (-10.5) vs. STL

Saint Louis this season might make last year's Detroit team look good. They should probably change their mascot from the Rams to this guy.

JAX (-3.5) vs. ARZ

I'm expecting a monster game from Jones-Drew in this one against the sub par Cardinals d-line. Against the Colts, the Jags proved that they are still a physical team that will be competitive each and every game. Also, the Cardinals passing attack was weak last week. With all their injuries at WR, it is too easy for teams to double Fitzgerald and make Warner go to his check downs or force passes and hope Larry makes a play. That leads to too many turnovers to win.

Sunday 4:05pm games

SEA (+1.5) @ SF

This is a very important game for these teams for this early in the season. With both the Rams and Cardinals as underdogs, the team who wins this will have a 2-0 record in the NFC West, giving them a solid leg up on the division. I like the experience of Hasselbeck at QB for a game like this. Also, looking back at recent seasons, the Seahawks have won 3 of the last 4 contests and all three wins were by 20 or more points. That's a very impressive margin.

BUF (-4.5) vs. TB

I stated last week that I hate Tampa this year and that I would bet against them every week until they cover. Meanwhile, despite handing the game over late, the Bills should have a lot of confidence based on how well they played against a tough New England team on the road. Expect the Bills to romp.

Sunday 4:15pm games

DEN (-3.5) vs. CLE

These are two very similar teams so I'm going to side with the home squad. I really couldn't care less about this matchup.

BAL (+4.5) @ SD

Based upon last week's performances it looked like this spread should be the other way around. The Chargers pulled out a win but Tomlinson looked terrible and Rivers wasn't that great either, missing a lot of open receivers and holding the ball too long. On the flip side, I loved what the Ravens did by allowing Flacco to throw the ball 43 times including some shots deep. Last season he was relegated to short and mid range passes only. While doing this, they also found a way to keep three rushers involved. Ray Rice looks like the leader of the group, but McClain got some goal line carries and McGahee suddenly looks like a great threat as a third down option. Look out for this team.

Sunday 8:20pm game

DAL (-2.5) vs. NYG

This pick is a gut call. I was impressed with Romo's ability to get everyone involved now that TO is out of the way. I'm already starting to second guess myself for not taking Roy Williams on any of my fantasy squads. For the Giants, they only played well enough to win and don't have a big play threat on the offense.

Monday 8:30pm game

IND (-3.5) @ MIA

Last week when I said Miami would be bad I didn't think they'd be that awful. Only a very late TD avoided a shutout in their opener as the Falcons completely man-handled them. I don't think that Fish fans will be very happy to hear this, but with their schedule they could easily be 1-7 after eight games. I'd feel safer betting on the team to the right.

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2009 RECORD

LOCK OF THE WEEK: 1-0

OVERALL: 10-6

LAST WEEK: 10-6

*Did anyone else think MegaMillions when they read quick picks. sweetaction!