All the Road teams are favored in Wild Card Weekend!
ATLANTA (-2.5) @ ARIZONA
INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) @ SAN DIEGO
BALTIMORE (-3) @ MIAMI
PHILADELPHIA (-3) @ MINNESOTA
Please have your picks and username into me by 12:00 (midnight) Wednesday. Also, remember to include a username.
Good Luck!
Monday, December 29, 2008
Sunday, December 28, 2008
BEAT THE ORACLE READERS' CONTEST
Have you ever wanted an opportunity to show your worth against a Professional NFL Pick Oracle???
During this year's NFL playoff season we will be holding a reader contest where you can pick the games and see how you stack up with the rest of the Sweet Action Picks community!!! When it comes to your ability to make picks, will you be the next Tom Brady or the next Ryan Leaf?
Interested in more information? I thought so. Here it is...
Rules (please read carefully):
1) Each Monday all of the playoff games will be posted with the spreads for that week's games. The spreads will not change for the purposes of this contest once posted.
2) E-mail me your picks by Wednesday each week at mlholcomb10@gmail.com with the title: "Sweetactionpicks reader contest: username". (You will need to create a username that you will use for the purposes of this contest - example of potential usernames: CrabsAtTempe or OneNutHomo)
3) On Thursday or Friday of each week, Sweetactionpicks will post its picks and also create an updated leaderboard to show everyone's standings.
3) On Thursday or Friday of each week, Sweetactionpicks will post its picks and also create an updated leaderboard to show everyone's standings.
4) You must be registered as a "follower of this blog" to be eligible. This can be done easily for clicking on "follow this blog" to the right
5) Have fun!
6) You must be at least eighteen years old and a legal resident of the United States, Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Island to be eligible for prizes. Sorry Mexico!
7) In the event of a tie, the tiebreaker will first be whoever correctly picks the SuperBowl. Second tiebreaker would be whoever wins more in the Championship round, etc. In the event that both teams in a tie are equal in each round, the tiebreaker will be whoever comes closer to correctly predicting the SuperBowl score.
Prizes:
1) The grandprize winner will receive a large customized "LOCK OF THE WEEK" brand T-Shirt.
2) Any runner-up who also beats out our pick Oracle will receive a free 6-month subscription to receive free gambling advice whenever they request it through the sweetactionpicks website.
Here's some of our past winners who have gone on to great success:
Friday, December 26, 2008
WEEK 17 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK: 
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) @ Buffalo
WASHINGTON (+3.5) @ San Francisco
CHICAGO (+3.5) @ Houston
In what will undoubtedly be a crazy week in terms of spreads, the overall key is to look for teams that have something left to play for. The best example of this is where the Bears will be fighting to sneak into the playoffs while the Texans will have visions of the golf course on their minds. In addition, Chicago is coming off a thrilling MNF victory and has gained momentum. Forte has never hit the rookie wall and will produce big time in this game as the Bears seemed to realize in the second half of last weeks game that he is their only viable option on offense. I can't believe that the Bears are getting points so take 'em and run. Lock it up!!!
In what will undoubtedly be a crazy week in terms of spreads, the overall key is to look for teams that have something left to play for. The best example of this is where the Bears will be fighting to sneak into the playoffs while the Texans will have visions of the golf course on their minds. In addition, Chicago is coming off a thrilling MNF victory and has gained momentum. Forte has never hit the rookie wall and will produce big time in this game as the Bears seemed to realize in the second half of last weeks game that he is their only viable option on offense. I can't believe that the Bears are getting points so take 'em and run. Lock it up!!!
REST OF WEEK 17:
1pm games:
1pm games:
ATLANTA (-14.5) vs. St. Louis
After the Panthers lost to the Giants on Sunday Night it left open the chance that the Falcons could steal the NFC South and a first round bye. Therefore, I expect the Falcons to throw everything they have at the Rams and get up early and hold on to it. The Rams have lost 9 in a row and have no motivation to get off that streak this week.
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) @ BuffaloThe Patriots dominate Buffalo the way Sean gets dominated by the girl to the left. No Mercy!
9 straight wins over the past 5 seasons is more than a trend and with the way New England has been blowing people out these past couple weeks and with a potential playoff berth on the line, expect this one to follow along. Pats win big in this one.
CINCINNATI (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
Surprisingly, the Bengals are on a two game winning streak and Cedric Benson has become a serious threat on the ground. I wouldn't recommend watching this game, but if you're looking for a streaking team, you could do worse than to put a few bucks on the Bengals.
DETROIT (+10.5) @ Green Bay
Can Detroit win? Will they complete the first ever 0-16 season? While I've been mentioning this week that most teams have motivation to win for a playoff berth, does any team have more motivation than the Lions to win? On the other side of the ball, the Packers proved on MNF that they can lose a game in a number of ways. Two more facts to keep in mind: 1)the Lions actually have a record above .500 ATS during road games this season; 2)these teams combined for 73 points in their first matchup, but the over/under is at 43.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) @ Indianapolis
Tony Dungy and the Colts have a reputation of sitting all their starters when their playoff seeding is all set. With the number five seed in the AFC all assured, I don't think that the studs play, but I think that the Titans play their guys to try and stay fresh with the bye coming up next week.
MINNESOTA (-6.5) vs. New York Giants
The Giants are banged up and have the #1 seed clinched so I don't expect them to be able to bring the same intensity that the Vikings will have in front of the home crowd. As long as Tavarius Jackson doesn't get in the way with a load of turnovers, the Vikings should take this one easily.
CAROLINA (-3.5) @ New Orleans
A late lead that was blown against the Giants last week has put the Panthers in a position where they need a win or a Falcons loss to hold onto the division and first round bye. I think they can take this one on the road and start their run to the SuperBowl. Also notable about this game is that Drew Brees is within range of breaking Dan Marino's yards passing in a season record. Expect a quick strike, high scoring game here.
CLEVELAND (+10.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers have dominated the Browns in recent memory, but with the likelihood that they rest their starters for at least half the game, I don't see how they win big. A lot of guys on the Browns are playing for jobs/contracts so the motivation is there following this difficult season to finish on a high note. This will also be a good indication as to whether or not the players have completely given up on Romeo Crenel. He'll probably be fired after the game, but don't worry. He's still happy about his situation. That or someone just brought up KFC.
The Steelers have dominated the Browns in recent memory, but with the likelihood that they rest their starters for at least half the game, I don't see how they win big. A lot of guys on the Browns are playing for jobs/contracts so the motivation is there following this difficult season to finish on a high note. This will also be a good indication as to whether or not the players have completely given up on Romeo Crenel. He'll probably be fired after the game, but don't worry. He's still happy about his situation. That or someone just brought up KFC.
OAKLAND (+13.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Bucs have been in a free fall ever since defensive coordinator Monte Kiffen announced that he would be leaving the team at the end of the season. They went from an almost assured playoff berth to looking in from the outside. I have not seen any evidence recently that the Bucs could beat a team by two TDs or more (unless its the Lions).
4pm games:
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) vs. Miami
The Jets won the matchup earlier this season at Dolphins Stadium by a score of 20-14. While everyone is impressed with the Fish winning 8 of their last 9 games, you should really take a look at their opponents before giving them too much credit. Which win is impressive? Was it the 2 point win over Oakland? Maybe the 4 point point win over the Rams? Perhaps I'm overlooking their performance where they pulled out the 5 point win over the 49ers? The only game during that stretch against a quality opponent was the blowout loss to the Patriots. I like the Jets to finish the season strong at home and give themselves a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
DALLAS (+1.5) @ Philadelphia
Both teams have a lot to play for and that should make this one of the weekends most interesting games. Every time that TO returns to Philly,you can count on plenty of distractions, but Dallas is that much better than the Eagles that they can overcome it. Contrary to every one's perceptions at the beginning of the season, the Cowboys are now a defensively oriented team. The Eagles are so inept with Andy Reid running the show that they can't seem to figure out that they are a running team when they win and a passing team when they lose. I don't see him figuring this out now if he hasn't over the first 16 weeks.
BALTIMORE (-12.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Ravens have been one of the surest things in the gambling world this season with an 11-4 record ATS. The Jaguars have been the opposite of that posting a 4-11 record ATS. Specifically, the Jags have lost their last two road games by double digits and those were to far lower opponents.
WASHINGTON (+3.5) @ San FranciscoBlah. Both teams have nothing to play for and no one has any reason to watch or care about this game. That's why I put the picture to the right in an effort to make this interesting. I would rather watch "Two Guys, One Horse" than this game.
SEATTLE (+5.5) @ Arizona
The Seahawks have been playing much better during the second half of the season and it finally paid off with a great upset win of the Jets. The Cardinals meanwhile look like they have no interest in playing football now that they have the NFC West wrapped up. They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games (the one cover was vs. the Rams, so can we even count that?). I would refer to that as sour action. Stay away.
The Seahawks have been playing much better during the second half of the season and it finally paid off with a great upset win of the Jets. The Cardinals meanwhile look like they have no interest in playing football now that they have the NFC West wrapped up. They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games (the one cover was vs. the Rams, so can we even count that?). I would refer to that as sour action. Stay away.
8pm game:
DENVER (+8.5) @ San Diego
This was one of the more difficult games to pick this weekend. On one hand, the Chargers have been playing very well and are motivated after being fisted by Ed Hochuli during a Week 2 loss to the Broncos. Still, I can't shake the feeling that this game will remain competitive to the end with a playoff berth on the line and that the spread should not be higher than 4 or 5.
**Check back on Sunday when a new readers' contest and prize will be announced!!!**
Friday, December 19, 2008
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS
Following a week off, back to the action BABY!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) @ Tennessee
Hell of a matchup and the game of the week in my eyes. A couple of weeks ago I would have jumped all over the Titans in this matchup, but the Steelers now look like a team that will be hosting the Lombardi trophy in February and I see this as a stepping stone. Pittsburgh's had to deal with the league's toughest schedule which has prepared them for matchups like this while the Titans have had a cupcake walk, especially during the second half of the year. Lock this up!!!
REST OF WEEK 16:
Saturday Night:
DALLAS (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Despite his success with wins/losses you have to remember that Joe Flacco is, in fact, a rookie. He has struggled whenever a good defense has been put in his way and his 5 losses are to the Giants, Steelers (2), Titans and Colts. This is why I have no confidence in him going against a Cowboys Defense that is as hot as any in the league. The only time they have given up more than 20 in the last 5 weeks was due to garbage time scores or defensive TDs by the other team. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 53 sacks and will make Flacco eat dirt all night long.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Quite a matchup here, huh? I feel terrible for the 19-22 people who paid for tickets and might actually attend this game. Betting on this game would mean you have a problem Ted.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) @ Detroit
What is making me pick the Saints here. Could it be the Lions 0-14 overall record? Could it be that the Lions are 1-6 at home ATS? Could it be that I am an asshole and just want to see the Lions become the first team to finish 0-16? All are options, but they are all just excuses to get your attention focused on the more important issue: the over of 50.5
MIAMI (-3.5) @ Kansas City
I wish the Chiefs had it in them, but I don't see how they win this game. The Dolphins' defense has really been turning it up recently allowing point totals of 12, 3 and 9 during the last three weeks (all wins). Taking out their performance against an extremely motivated Patriots team, they have not given up over 20 points in over half a season. This, combined with the expected cold weather, points to taking the under of 39.5
ST. LOUIS (+5.5) vs. San Francisco
Shades of the Browns/Bengals games from earlier. I like the home team getting points, but wouldn't recommend betting on this you degenerates.
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. Arizona
Week 3: 17-24; Week 4: 35-56; Week 8: 23-27; Week 13: 20-48. My favorite theme of the season has been how poorly West Coast teams (and Arizona in particular) have struggled when traveling East to play games. Well, now that the weather has turned cold and an Arizona team will be playing in the snow do you think its gonna get any better? Me neither. Also, with more snowfall expected in new England this Sunday, it might be in your best interests to take the under of 44.5 before it drops to 40 by game time.
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
In the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have had a chance to take control of their division. Instead, they have lost to the Panthers convincingly and looked horrendous offensively against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been able to gain some late season momentum with back to back division wins including last weekend's miracle with less than two minutes left. This is strictly a momentum pick and a vote of no confidence in the Bucs offense since Earnest Graham's injury.
4pm games:
SEATTLE (+4.5) vs. New York Jets
Were it not for the complete incompetence of JP Losman, the Jets would be riding a 3 game losing streak into this matchup. I don't think that a cross country trip will be a good thing for a team that despite being in the driver's seat for its own division, looks as bad as it has all season right now. Additionally the Seahawks have been playing well as of late especially at home. That makes this the ML upset special of the week.
HOUSTON (-7.5) @ Oakland
The Texans are actually one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Raiders are also 1-6 ATS at home this season and I think this could be a 21 point blowout.
DENVER (-6.5) vs. Buffalo
Broncos are on pace to limp there way to a disappointing first round home loss after a win to a depressing to watch Bills team. I really hate to bet on either of these teams, but one is much more pathetic than the other.
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) @ Washington
The Eagles are making a late playoff push and I don't expect them to lose momentum to a Redskins team that is just waiting for the season to end to get Jim Zorn off the payroll. Interestingly about the Eagles is that despite their struggles early in the season, they are an impressive 9-3 ATS on the season. Better start begging to keep your job Jim!
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. Atlanta
The Falcons have been a wonderful story all season, but they just aren't a good road team. The Vikings running game has started clicking on all cylinders and will take advantage of this being the weak point in the Falcons' team.
8pm game:
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ New York Giants
Who would have guessed that shooting yourself in the leg would cause such a big distraction? Way to go Plax. In one season you've gone from Superbowl hero to football outcast who could be in jail soon. 1st pick in a prison league, who do you take Vick or Plax?
OK...i digress. The reason I like the Panthers so much is their running game and point totals of 31, 28, 35, 38 and 30 points. That's staggering. Keep an eye on the weather, but the over of 37.5 looks succulent.
Monday Night:
CHICAGO (-4.5) vs. Green Bay
The Packers' season is officially over. The Bears have some false hope that they could squeeze in. That hope may be gone by the time Monday Night rolls around, but I still look at their schedule this year and see that they have been a dominant home team.
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
PITTSBURGH (-1.5) @ Tennessee
Hell of a matchup and the game of the week in my eyes. A couple of weeks ago I would have jumped all over the Titans in this matchup, but the Steelers now look like a team that will be hosting the Lombardi trophy in February and I see this as a stepping stone. Pittsburgh's had to deal with the league's toughest schedule which has prepared them for matchups like this while the Titans have had a cupcake walk, especially during the second half of the year. Lock this up!!!
REST OF WEEK 16:
Saturday Night:
DALLAS (-4.5) vs. Baltimore
Despite his success with wins/losses you have to remember that Joe Flacco is, in fact, a rookie. He has struggled whenever a good defense has been put in his way and his 5 losses are to the Giants, Steelers (2), Titans and Colts. This is why I have no confidence in him going against a Cowboys Defense that is as hot as any in the league. The only time they have given up more than 20 in the last 5 weeks was due to garbage time scores or defensive TDs by the other team. The Cowboys lead the NFL with 53 sacks and will make Flacco eat dirt all night long.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati
Quite a matchup here, huh? I feel terrible for the 19-22 people who paid for tickets and might actually attend this game. Betting on this game would mean you have a problem Ted.
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) @ Detroit
What is making me pick the Saints here. Could it be the Lions 0-14 overall record? Could it be that the Lions are 1-6 at home ATS? Could it be that I am an asshole and just want to see the Lions become the first team to finish 0-16? All are options, but they are all just excuses to get your attention focused on the more important issue: the over of 50.5
MIAMI (-3.5) @ Kansas City
I wish the Chiefs had it in them, but I don't see how they win this game. The Dolphins' defense has really been turning it up recently allowing point totals of 12, 3 and 9 during the last three weeks (all wins). Taking out their performance against an extremely motivated Patriots team, they have not given up over 20 points in over half a season. This, combined with the expected cold weather, points to taking the under of 39.5
ST. LOUIS (+5.5) vs. San Francisco
Shades of the Browns/Bengals games from earlier. I like the home team getting points, but wouldn't recommend betting on this you degenerates.
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. Arizona
Week 3: 17-24; Week 4: 35-56; Week 8: 23-27; Week 13: 20-48. My favorite theme of the season has been how poorly West Coast teams (and Arizona in particular) have struggled when traveling East to play games. Well, now that the weather has turned cold and an Arizona team will be playing in the snow do you think its gonna get any better? Me neither. Also, with more snowfall expected in new England this Sunday, it might be in your best interests to take the under of 44.5 before it drops to 40 by game time.
SAN DIEGO (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay
In the last two weeks, the Buccaneers have had a chance to take control of their division. Instead, they have lost to the Panthers convincingly and looked horrendous offensively against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been able to gain some late season momentum with back to back division wins including last weekend's miracle with less than two minutes left. This is strictly a momentum pick and a vote of no confidence in the Bucs offense since Earnest Graham's injury.
4pm games:
SEATTLE (+4.5) vs. New York Jets
Were it not for the complete incompetence of JP Losman, the Jets would be riding a 3 game losing streak into this matchup. I don't think that a cross country trip will be a good thing for a team that despite being in the driver's seat for its own division, looks as bad as it has all season right now. Additionally the Seahawks have been playing well as of late especially at home. That makes this the ML upset special of the week.
HOUSTON (-7.5) @ Oakland
The Texans are actually one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Raiders are the Raiders. The Raiders are also 1-6 ATS at home this season and I think this could be a 21 point blowout.
DENVER (-6.5) vs. Buffalo
Broncos are on pace to limp there way to a disappointing first round home loss after a win to a depressing to watch Bills team. I really hate to bet on either of these teams, but one is much more pathetic than the other.
PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) @ Washington
The Eagles are making a late playoff push and I don't expect them to lose momentum to a Redskins team that is just waiting for the season to end to get Jim Zorn off the payroll. Interestingly about the Eagles is that despite their struggles early in the season, they are an impressive 9-3 ATS on the season. Better start begging to keep your job Jim!
MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs. Atlanta
The Falcons have been a wonderful story all season, but they just aren't a good road team. The Vikings running game has started clicking on all cylinders and will take advantage of this being the weak point in the Falcons' team.
8pm game:
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ New York Giants
Who would have guessed that shooting yourself in the leg would cause such a big distraction? Way to go Plax. In one season you've gone from Superbowl hero to football outcast who could be in jail soon. 1st pick in a prison league, who do you take Vick or Plax?
OK...i digress. The reason I like the Panthers so much is their running game and point totals of 31, 28, 35, 38 and 30 points. That's staggering. Keep an eye on the weather, but the over of 37.5 looks succulent.
Monday Night:
CHICAGO (-4.5) vs. Green Bay
The Packers' season is officially over. The Bears have some false hope that they could squeeze in. That hope may be gone by the time Monday Night rolls around, but I still look at their schedule this year and see that they have been a dominant home team.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Thursday Night Game:
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Colts seems to be clicking on all cylinders as they head towards the home stretch of the season. (having played a number of crummy teams in a row hasn't hurt either, with DET, CIN, CLE as their last 3 victims). The road doesn't get much tougher here as the disappointment of the year, your Jacksonville Jaguars, host them in a Thursday Night prime time matchup. Don't
let the Jags fool you into thinking that they should cover because they are a home. In fact, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS this year at home and have nothing to play for (except new contracts). Jack Del Rio is just biding his time until the season ends and he is handed his pink slip. Wait, tell us again Jack...How many time should you have been fired by now?
Additionally, I would like to once again promote the Over (44) for a Thursday night game. Short weeks are much harder for defenses to prepare than offenses.
All the weekend picks and more to come this Friday evening...
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) vs. Jacksonville
The Colts seems to be clicking on all cylinders as they head towards the home stretch of the season. (having played a number of crummy teams in a row hasn't hurt either, with DET, CIN, CLE as their last 3 victims). The road doesn't get much tougher here as the disappointment of the year, your Jacksonville Jaguars, host them in a Thursday Night prime time matchup. Don't
let the Jags fool you into thinking that they should cover because they are a home. In fact, the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS this year at home and have nothing to play for (except new contracts). Jack Del Rio is just biding his time until the season ends and he is handed his pink slip. Wait, tell us again Jack...How many time should you have been fired by now?Additionally, I would like to once again promote the Over (44) for a Thursday night game. Short weeks are much harder for defenses to prepare than offenses.
All the weekend picks and more to come this Friday evening...
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
WEEK13 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Washington
REST OF WEEK 13:
1pm games:
BUFFALO (-6.5) vs. San Francisco
BALTIMORE (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) @ Cleveland
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ Green Bay
MIAMI (-7.5) @ St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) vs. New Orleans
4pm games:
ATLANTA (+5.5) @ San Diego
NEW YORK JETS (-7.5) vs. Denver
OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh
8pm games:
CHICAGO (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Monday Night:
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Washington
REST OF WEEK 13:
1pm games:
BUFFALO (-6.5) vs. San Francisco
BALTIMORE (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
INDIANAPOLIS (-4.5) @ Cleveland
CAROLINA (+3.5) @ Green Bay
MIAMI (-7.5) @ St. Louis
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) vs. New Orleans
4pm games:
ATLANTA (+5.5) @ San Diego
NEW YORK JETS (-7.5) vs. Denver
OAKLAND (-2.5) vs. Kansas City
NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh
8pm games:
CHICAGO (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Monday Night:
HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville
Thursday, November 27, 2008
THANKSGIVING DAY SPECIAL!!!
12:30 game:
TENNESSEE (-11.5) @ Detroit
Worst record in the league vs. the best record in the league. Can we please just stop for a moment and give the schedule makers a round of applause for making our Holiday so much fun?! Those assholes. The image to the right is not only our favorite Thanksgiving feast, but also my opinion of the schedule-makers.
OK, to the game. Despite last week humbling to the Jets, the Titans remain 9-1 ATS the spread this season and that includes a perfect 5-0 record ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Lions are still the Lions. Specifically, they are 0-5 ATS the spread at home. Easy pick here and expect the Titans to control possession of the ball for about 40 minutes with their strong running game.
4:15 game:
DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle
Seems as though the Cowboys have finally gotten things rolling with Tony Romo back at the helm. Last week's game against the 49ers wasn't a complete laugher only after San Fran scored two late and meaningless TDs. I expect to see the home team put on a good show for the fans and strengthen their playoff position against a team with nothing left to play for. The only thing that will stop the 'Boys is if Jessica Simpson puts on a bad pre-game show and Romo misses the game consoling her.
8:15 game:
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. Arizona
Fools Gold Alert! Everyone's reaction to this game is that the Cardinals should be able to control it because of their superior record and Philadelphia's recent struggles. However, the stats don't lie and this season West Coast teams are a combined 0-15 when playing in an Eastern Time Zone. Specifically, the last time Arizona went east, they lost 35-56 and gave up 6 TD passes to Brett Favre's corpse. Especially with the short week I would expect the travel to be even more of a factor. Also, the Cardinals have not won a game (or covered a spread) against a team with a .500 or better record in a month and a half.
Other Advice:
Short weeks tend to favor the offesnse. I would seriously consider the overs in all these games. Every week that there has been a Thursday game this season (with the exception of week one which doesn't count because it isn't a short week of preparation) the Over has been the winning bet.
TENNESSEE (-11.5) @ Detroit
Worst record in the league vs. the best record in the league. Can we please just stop for a moment and give the schedule makers a round of applause for making our Holiday so much fun?! Those assholes. The image to the right is not only our favorite Thanksgiving feast, but also my opinion of the schedule-makers.
OK, to the game. Despite last week humbling to the Jets, the Titans remain 9-1 ATS the spread this season and that includes a perfect 5-0 record ATS on the road. Meanwhile, the Lions are still the Lions. Specifically, they are 0-5 ATS the spread at home. Easy pick here and expect the Titans to control possession of the ball for about 40 minutes with their strong running game.
4:15 game:
DALLAS (-12.5) vs. Seattle
Seems as though the Cowboys have finally gotten things rolling with Tony Romo back at the helm. Last week's game against the 49ers wasn't a complete laugher only after San Fran scored two late and meaningless TDs. I expect to see the home team put on a good show for the fans and strengthen their playoff position against a team with nothing left to play for. The only thing that will stop the 'Boys is if Jessica Simpson puts on a bad pre-game show and Romo misses the game consoling her.
8:15 game:
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs. Arizona
Fools Gold Alert! Everyone's reaction to this game is that the Cardinals should be able to control it because of their superior record and Philadelphia's recent struggles. However, the stats don't lie and this season West Coast teams are a combined 0-15 when playing in an Eastern Time Zone. Specifically, the last time Arizona went east, they lost 35-56 and gave up 6 TD passes to Brett Favre's corpse. Especially with the short week I would expect the travel to be even more of a factor. Also, the Cardinals have not won a game (or covered a spread) against a team with a .500 or better record in a month and a half.
Other Advice:
Short weeks tend to favor the offesnse. I would seriously consider the overs in all these games. Every week that there has been a Thursday game this season (with the exception of week one which doesn't count because it isn't a short week of preparation) the Over has been the winning bet.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS
Thanks to all the loyal readers who submitted Pictures and Images to Sweet Action. The winning submission was e-mailed by SEAN from ARIZONA.
CONGRATULATIONS SEAN!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
CAROLINA (+1.5) @ Atlanta
The Panthers run defense is too good for Turner to get going and they will have to rely on rookie QB Ryan for its points. Not that he doesn't have the ability, but it seems as though teams are starting to find a way to confuse him, especially late in games. I'm looking for a late season slide for the Falcons. It looks like the clock has hit midnight for this Cinderella.
REST OF WEEK 12:
Thursday night:
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Steelers have covered 10.5 against the Bengals in three straight matchups including a 38-10 thrashing in October of this year. The running game of the Bengals will be shut down against the tough Steelers D and they will have to rely on a passing game that is without big-time weapon Chad Ocho Cinco. FWP should run for 100+ against the porous Cincy run D that allows 131 yards rushing per game.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Houston
Just as important as the spread is to remember to take the over. Cleveland's offense is catching up to speed, scoring 27, 30 and 29 points in the last three games. Meanwhile, that Texans D has allowed ridiculously high totals of 28, 41 and 33 points during the same three week span. Nuff said!
SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ Dallas
I'm not convinced that the Cowboys are back after a close win over a depleted Washington squad. Double-digit spread seems way to high for this historic rivalry.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Detroit
Even the devastating news that the Bucs received this week that Earnest Graham's ankle will cause him to miss the remainder of the season will not be enough to slow them against the woeful Lions. Detroit is last in the league, allowing over 170 rushing yards per game. With Cadillac still not healthy enough to play, this means that Warrick Dunn is a must start in all fantasy leagues. On the other side of the ball, expect the Tampa D to have loads of fun with Daunte "the turnover machine" Culpepper.
NEW YORK JETS (+5.5) @ Tennessee
The Jets are picking up momentum each week with each big win and while the Titans continue to win, they seem to be getting into closer contests as teams are focusing on stuffing the run and forcing Kerry Collins to beat them. I'm not convinced that this will get the Jets the win, but I think the smart play is to take them with the points.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. Buffalo
The Bills are in a free fall and despite their abysmal record, the Chiefs are actually 5-5 ATS and have a rested and healthy Larry Johnson to go with Tyler Thigpen who, again surprisingly, is one of the hottest QBs in the league. I'm taking the ML on KC at home and I suggest you do the same.
CHICAGO (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Chicago has hit the first real rough patch of their season and this week's bye couldn't come at a better time. Well I mean, sure they are playing...but against the Rams you can count rushing for 200 yards and scoring 35 points with little trouble. Perhaps if Steven Jackson was healthy than St. Louis could have an argument to cover, but he is made of glass.
NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) @ Miami
The Patriots have not been swept in the season series by the Dolphins since 2000 and I don't expect that stat to change now. Plus, Belichick having a long 10 day week to prepare for the Wildcat offense that confused them so much in the first matchup is an obvious advantage. Take the ML, since 1.5 points is useless.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Tricky game. Two underachieving teams that are both 3-7 ATS and coming off losses. In this case I always go with the home team.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia
McNabb knows the NFL rules like Burkhardt knows statutory rape rules. They both plead ignorance and they will both one day be the center of a media circus. The difference is that McNabb's will cause his already struggling team to be further distracted on a road matchup where they would have struggled anyways.
4pm games:
DENVER (-9.5) vs. Oakland
The only thing that the Raiders could do to get me to watch them this season is if they let Al Davis play RB for a few plays and even then I'd only watch to see that cranky old fuck get decapitated. Until this happens, I will pick whoever they play, especially when its a high powered offense coming off a huge road win.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Giants are still the class of the NFC and until the Cardinals beat a good opponent this season (they haven't, and I don't count the Cowboys as a good opponent at this point) I have to pick against them in every game like this. Please note that I would change this point of view if they get a W this weekend.
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Washington
The Skins struggled in a prime time matchup last week against the Cowboys, and I expect more of the same against the improving Seahawks and their offense that finally seems healthy.
8pm game:
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) @ San Diego
The Colts appear to be rounding into form at just the right time in the season, while this year looks like a lost cause for the ultra-talented Chargers. Colts love prime-time and this O is picking up steam.
Monday Night:
GREEN BAY (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Packers looked incredible last week in their 37-3 dismantling of the Bears a week ago. Confidence is high in offensive studs Grant and Rodgers and will rise in what should be a very entertaining and high scoring game.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 7-4
Happy Gambling!!!
(EDITOR'S NOTE: this posting was made while recovering from surgery and under the influence of lots of painkillers. If anything doesn't make sense and you would like to complain...then go fuck yourself!)
CONGRATULATIONS SEAN!!!
LOCK OF THE WEEK:
CAROLINA (+1.5) @ Atlanta
The Panthers run defense is too good for Turner to get going and they will have to rely on rookie QB Ryan for its points. Not that he doesn't have the ability, but it seems as though teams are starting to find a way to confuse him, especially late in games. I'm looking for a late season slide for the Falcons. It looks like the clock has hit midnight for this Cinderella.
REST OF WEEK 12:
Thursday night:
PITTSBURGH (-10.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Steelers have covered 10.5 against the Bengals in three straight matchups including a 38-10 thrashing in October of this year. The running game of the Bengals will be shut down against the tough Steelers D and they will have to rely on a passing game that is without big-time weapon Chad Ocho Cinco. FWP should run for 100+ against the porous Cincy run D that allows 131 yards rushing per game.
1pm games:
CLEVELAND (-3.5) vs. Houston
Just as important as the spread is to remember to take the over. Cleveland's offense is catching up to speed, scoring 27, 30 and 29 points in the last three games. Meanwhile, that Texans D has allowed ridiculously high totals of 28, 41 and 33 points during the same three week span. Nuff said!
SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ Dallas
I'm not convinced that the Cowboys are back after a close win over a depleted Washington squad. Double-digit spread seems way to high for this historic rivalry.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Detroit
Even the devastating news that the Bucs received this week that Earnest Graham's ankle will cause him to miss the remainder of the season will not be enough to slow them against the woeful Lions. Detroit is last in the league, allowing over 170 rushing yards per game. With Cadillac still not healthy enough to play, this means that Warrick Dunn is a must start in all fantasy leagues. On the other side of the ball, expect the Tampa D to have loads of fun with Daunte "the turnover machine" Culpepper.
NEW YORK JETS (+5.5) @ Tennessee
The Jets are picking up momentum each week with each big win and while the Titans continue to win, they seem to be getting into closer contests as teams are focusing on stuffing the run and forcing Kerry Collins to beat them. I'm not convinced that this will get the Jets the win, but I think the smart play is to take them with the points.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) vs. Buffalo
The Bills are in a free fall and despite their abysmal record, the Chiefs are actually 5-5 ATS and have a rested and healthy Larry Johnson to go with Tyler Thigpen who, again surprisingly, is one of the hottest QBs in the league. I'm taking the ML on KC at home and I suggest you do the same.
CHICAGO (-7.5) @ St. Louis
Chicago has hit the first real rough patch of their season and this week's bye couldn't come at a better time. Well I mean, sure they are playing...but against the Rams you can count rushing for 200 yards and scoring 35 points with little trouble. Perhaps if Steven Jackson was healthy than St. Louis could have an argument to cover, but he is made of glass.
NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) @ Miami
The Patriots have not been swept in the season series by the Dolphins since 2000 and I don't expect that stat to change now. Plus, Belichick having a long 10 day week to prepare for the Wildcat offense that confused them so much in the first matchup is an obvious advantage. Take the ML, since 1.5 points is useless.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) vs. Minnesota
Tricky game. Two underachieving teams that are both 3-7 ATS and coming off losses. In this case I always go with the home team.
BALTIMORE (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia
McNabb knows the NFL rules like Burkhardt knows statutory rape rules. They both plead ignorance and they will both one day be the center of a media circus. The difference is that McNabb's will cause his already struggling team to be further distracted on a road matchup where they would have struggled anyways.
4pm games:
DENVER (-9.5) vs. Oakland
The only thing that the Raiders could do to get me to watch them this season is if they let Al Davis play RB for a few plays and even then I'd only watch to see that cranky old fuck get decapitated. Until this happens, I will pick whoever they play, especially when its a high powered offense coming off a huge road win.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5) @ Arizona
The Giants are still the class of the NFC and until the Cardinals beat a good opponent this season (they haven't, and I don't count the Cowboys as a good opponent at this point) I have to pick against them in every game like this. Please note that I would change this point of view if they get a W this weekend.
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Washington
The Skins struggled in a prime time matchup last week against the Cowboys, and I expect more of the same against the improving Seahawks and their offense that finally seems healthy.
8pm game:
INDIANAPOLIS (+2.5) @ San Diego
The Colts appear to be rounding into form at just the right time in the season, while this year looks like a lost cause for the ultra-talented Chargers. Colts love prime-time and this O is picking up steam.
Monday Night:
GREEN BAY (+2.5) @ New Orleans
The Packers looked incredible last week in their 37-3 dismantling of the Bears a week ago. Confidence is high in offensive studs Grant and Rodgers and will rise in what should be a very entertaining and high scoring game.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 7-4
Happy Gambling!!!
(EDITOR'S NOTE: this posting was made while recovering from surgery and under the influence of lots of painkillers. If anything doesn't make sense and you would like to complain...then go fuck yourself!)
Thursday, November 13, 2008
WEEK 11 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
ARIZONA (-3.5) @ Seattle
ARIZONA (-3.5) @ Seattle
REST OF WEEK 11:
Thursday Night:
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. New York Jets
1pm games:
DENVER (+5.5) @ Atlanta
PHILADELPHIA (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
CHICAGO (+5.5) @ Green Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (-8.5) vs. Houston
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) vs. New Orleans
MIAMI (-10.5) vs. Oakland
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. Baltimore
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
DETROIT (-14.5) @ Carolina
TENNESSEE (-2.5) @ Jacksonville
4pm games:
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) vs. St. Louis
PITTSBURGH (-4.5) vs. San Diego
8 pm game:
WASHINGTON (+1.5) vs. Dallas
Monday Night:
CLEVELAND (+4.5) @ Buffalo
Monday, November 10, 2008
READER CONTEST
***Attention all loyal Lock of the Week readers!***
For the NFL's Week 12 (11/23), Sweet Action will post a lock picture, drawing or design of one lucky reader in its critically acclaimed Lock of the Week section. It is a great chance for you as a reader to have your image seen by literally 5 people worldwide!!!
Please send your submissions to: MLHolcomb10@gmail.com and include the title "Lock Contest". The winner will be chosen based on creativity, obscurity and most importantly, humor.
Prize Information:
GRAND PRIZE
The Grand Price Winner will receive a personalized autographed photo* from Lock of the Week creator Matthew Holcomb. Prize will be mailed to your home address within 7-10 business days of Week 12 posting.
CONSOLATION PRIZE
The Consolation Prize for the runner-ups of the Lock Contest will receive an enthusiastic high-five!**
*approximate retail price of Autographed picture is $4.20
**approximate retail price of an enthusiastic high-five is $0.01
For the NFL's Week 12 (11/23), Sweet Action will post a lock picture, drawing or design of one lucky reader in its critically acclaimed Lock of the Week section. It is a great chance for you as a reader to have your image seen by literally 5 people worldwide!!!
Please send your submissions to: MLHolcomb10@gmail.com and include the title "Lock Contest". The winner will be chosen based on creativity, obscurity and most importantly, humor.
Prize Information:
GRAND PRIZE
The Grand Price Winner will receive a personalized autographed photo* from Lock of the Week creator Matthew Holcomb. Prize will be mailed to your home address within 7-10 business days of Week 12 posting.
CONSOLATION PRIZE
The Consolation Prize for the runner-ups of the Lock Contest will receive an enthusiastic high-five!**
*approximate retail price of Autographed picture is $4.20
**approximate retail price of an enthusiastic high-five is $0.01
Friday, November 7, 2008
WEEK 10 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA (-9.5) @ Oakland
Oakland has lost 4 of its last 5 games by 10 or more points and remain in turmoil after the firing of Coach Kiffin a few weeks ago. Releasing DeAngelo Hall this week only half a season into a huge contract was a sign that the Raiders have given up all hope and are trying to get the top pick in June's draft. If you need more to convince you of how bad this team is then read these statistics from last week's game at Atlanta: 0 Points; 10 Passing Yards; 67 Rushing Yards; 3 First Downs.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are undefeated at home, all while beating some top NFC teams in Chicago, Atlanta and New Orleans. Expect Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams to combine for at least 200 yards rushing. Lock this one UP!!!
REST OF WEEK 10:
1 pm games:
ATLANTA (-0.5) vs. New Orleans
For what its worth, no NFC South team has lost a home game this year againsta divisional foe.TENNESSEE (-3.0) @ Chicago
These two teams playa similar style of play, but one of them does it much better. 'Nuff Said.DETROIT (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville
Jacksonville allowed Cincinnati to earn its first win of the season and I expect Detroit to beat the Jaguars straight up at home and get their first win as well.MIAMI (-9.5) vs. Seattle
If you have Dolphins in fantasy then start them. Even Chad Pennington. MINNESOTA (-2.5) vs. Green Bay
NEW ENGLND (-3.5) vs. Buffalo
NEW YORK JETS (-8.5) vs. St. Louis
BALTIMORE (+1.5) @ Houston
4 pm games:
PITTSBURGH (-3.5) vs. Indianapolis
KANSAS CITY (+15.5) @ San Diego
8 pm game:
NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) @ Philadelphia
Monday Night:
ARIZONA (-9.5) vs. San Francisco
Friday, October 31, 2008
WEEK 9 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
HOUSTON (+4.5) @ Minnesota
The Texans boast one of the hottest offenses, putting up point totals of 27, 27, 29, 28 and 35 in
their last five games (the last three wins). The aerial attack is close to unstoppable with Andre Johnson becoming the leagues most dominant receiver and Kevin Walter doing his best impersonation of Wes Welker from 2007. The Vikings have not been able to put up any level of consistency in a year that many predicted they would by one of the top teams in the league. Fortunately for you and I, Vegas has not caught on to this yet. Expect a high-scoring game and plenty of fantasy points for ADP as well, but not nearly enough help from Gus "noodle-arm" Frerotte as he's fresh off a 4 interception day. LOCK IT UP!
REST OF WEEK 9
1 pm games
BUFFALO (-5.5) vs. New York Jets
Brett Favre has comitted 8 turnovers in the past 3 games. That wouldn't be so bad by itself for old greybeard, but the opponents in those games have been the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. Not exactly the class of the NFL. Look for the Bills to bounce back at home after a surprising loss last week.
CHICAGO (-12.5) vs. Detroit
Detriot is in so much trouble that they are attempting to coax Daunte Culpepper from retirement. Not a good sign...
Also, if you have Forte in you fantasy league then start him. 160 yards and 2 TDs is a safe prediction.
JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
The Bengals are as functional as the man you see to the right after he's had two Cosmos.
CLEVELAND (-1.5) vs. Baltimore
In all honesty I have no idea what to think for this game. Both teams are coming in with some level of momentum. I'll take the home team after my coin landed on heads.
ST. LOUIS (+2.5) vs. Arizona
High scoring game here and don't be afraid to take the over of 48. These teams are to defense what Sean Tate is to sobriety. I like St. Louis' passing game to get going and Torry Holt to have his breakout game of the year. Start everyone you own from these teams in fantasy.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. Green Bay
I said it last week and I will stick with it: Ride her til she bucks you. Take the Titans.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Kansas City
Its been well documented that I am a fan of of the Bucs this year. Graham and Dunn will combine for huge number against a horrendous Chiefs run D.
4pm games
MIAMI (+3.5) @ Denver
Denver's rush D is hurting which will create a lot of lanes for the explosive Ronnie Brown.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5) vs. Dallas
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) @ Seattle
ATLANTA (-2.5) @ Oakland
8pm game
NEW ENGLAND (+5.5) @ Indianapolis
The Colts have shown me no reason thsi season why they should be favored by greater than 3 points in this game. Until they do, don't be like teh rest of teh suckers who bet based on team reputation and not on performance from this year.
Monady Night
PITTSBURGH (+2.5) @ Washington
This was one of the easier games for me to pick. The Steelers are a far superior team to a Redskins team that has overacheived and has its only two offense weapons ailing. Grab that Money-Line.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 5-3
SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 64-52
HOUSTON (+4.5) @ Minnesota
The Texans boast one of the hottest offenses, putting up point totals of 27, 27, 29, 28 and 35 in
their last five games (the last three wins). The aerial attack is close to unstoppable with Andre Johnson becoming the leagues most dominant receiver and Kevin Walter doing his best impersonation of Wes Welker from 2007. The Vikings have not been able to put up any level of consistency in a year that many predicted they would by one of the top teams in the league. Fortunately for you and I, Vegas has not caught on to this yet. Expect a high-scoring game and plenty of fantasy points for ADP as well, but not nearly enough help from Gus "noodle-arm" Frerotte as he's fresh off a 4 interception day. LOCK IT UP!REST OF WEEK 9
1 pm games
BUFFALO (-5.5) vs. New York Jets
Brett Favre has comitted 8 turnovers in the past 3 games. That wouldn't be so bad by itself for old greybeard, but the opponents in those games have been the Bengals, Raiders and Chiefs. Not exactly the class of the NFL. Look for the Bills to bounce back at home after a surprising loss last week.
CHICAGO (-12.5) vs. Detroit
Detriot is in so much trouble that they are attempting to coax Daunte Culpepper from retirement. Not a good sign...
Also, if you have Forte in you fantasy league then start him. 160 yards and 2 TDs is a safe prediction.
JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) @ Cincinnati
The Bengals are as functional as the man you see to the right after he's had two Cosmos.
CLEVELAND (-1.5) vs. Baltimore
In all honesty I have no idea what to think for this game. Both teams are coming in with some level of momentum. I'll take the home team after my coin landed on heads.
ST. LOUIS (+2.5) vs. Arizona
High scoring game here and don't be afraid to take the over of 48. These teams are to defense what Sean Tate is to sobriety. I like St. Louis' passing game to get going and Torry Holt to have his breakout game of the year. Start everyone you own from these teams in fantasy.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) vs. Green Bay
I said it last week and I will stick with it: Ride her til she bucks you. Take the Titans.
TAMPA BAY (-8.5) @ Kansas City
Its been well documented that I am a fan of of the Bucs this year. Graham and Dunn will combine for huge number against a horrendous Chiefs run D.
4pm games
MIAMI (+3.5) @ Denver
Denver's rush D is hurting which will create a lot of lanes for the explosive Ronnie Brown.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7.5) vs. Dallas
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) @ Seattle
ATLANTA (-2.5) @ Oakland
8pm game
NEW ENGLAND (+5.5) @ Indianapolis
The Colts have shown me no reason thsi season why they should be favored by greater than 3 points in this game. Until they do, don't be like teh rest of teh suckers who bet based on team reputation and not on performance from this year.
Monady Night
PITTSBURGH (+2.5) @ Washington
This was one of the easier games for me to pick. The Steelers are a far superior team to a Redskins team that has overacheived and has its only two offense weapons ailing. Grab that Money-Line.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD: 5-3
SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 64-52
Thursday, October 23, 2008
WEEK 8 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK
BUFFALO (-1.5) @ Miami
Buffalo has won 8 straight ATS vs Miami and is coming off a big win vs. San Diego. Edwards was sharp in his first game back from concussion and shred the Chargers D for 261 yards on 25 of 30 passing. In addition, Marshawn Lynch continued to be good for a TD a game. Miami meanwhile took a step back with a home loss to a Baltimore team that had done very little this season on the offensive side of the ball until last week. In what is essentially a pick, I go with the team that has the momentum and the talent. Lock it up!
REST OF WEEK 7:
1pm Games
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) @ Dallas
Two quick facts sum up this matchup: The Bucs are 6-1 ATS this season and the Boys are 2-5 ATS this season. Add to that the injuries and turmoil in big D and its a wonder why the Bucs aren't the ones giving points. Expect to see Jerry Jones pacing the sidelines and Wade Phillips waiting for his pink slip.
DETROIT (+7.5) vs. Washington
Fact: Washington has not beaten a team this season by more than 7 points and are coming off of bad home performances against St. Louis and Cleveland. While Detroit is no gem, they have had close road losses the past two weeks to quality opponents. Detroit at home coupled with Portis' sore shoulder and I like the Lions to cover.
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) @ New England
Just like I said last week this Patriots squad will be alternating up and down all season. Last week was up so this week will be down. I also expect Stephen Jackson to run wild.
NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) vs. San Diego
The Saints are a better team at home (3-1) than on the road (0-3). Likewise, the Chargers tend to struggle away from San Diego (1-3), especially scoring points. New Orleans getting points in this game seems like a gift from Vegas so don't pass it up.
NEW YORK JETS (-12.5) vs. Kansas City
When Larry Johnson said this past week, "I want to start off saying I apologize to the Hunt family, my family, first and foremost, the fans, teammates, coaches and players." was he talking about slapping and spitting on some skank at a bar or the Chiefs performance? They have lost by 15 or more points in 4 of the last 5 weeks, including back to back scores of 34-0 and 34-10. At least they are consistent in what they allow. Even without the LJ distractions this one would be a no brainer. Take the Jets.
ATLANTA (+8.5) @ Philadelphia
Atlanta has been the surprise team of the '08 season so far and for some reason the odds makers haven't caught on yet. The Eagles are fading in support with the Phillies doing so well and this home game will not be like the usual hostile environment at the Linc. Take the points.
OAKLAND (+6.5) @ Baltimore
Seems like a lot of points for two very similar teams. Strong D, rely on the run, can pass for shit. Take the underdog in this situation.
CAROLINA (-4.5) vs. Arizona
Carolina is a different team at home. They are undefeated and have outscored opponents in the last two games by 64-7. Arizona meanwhile has given up 80 points in its last two road games. I love the Panthers and I smell a sweet aroma in the air. Its either fresh baked cookies or the over of 43.5
4pm Games
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) vs. Cleveland
Jax will run the ball and that will be the story of the game. I also like the under of 42 points. With the exception of Cleveland's MNF outburst of 35 points against the defending champs, they have struggled to put points up. It won't get any easier against the physical and intimidating Jaguars.
HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati
I will bet against the Bengals every week this season unless something drastic happens. Apologies to all Bengals fans. wait...what was that? there are none. ok, good. I feel better now.
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) vs. New York Giants
Two very solid teams so I will side with the home club. I think this will be a lower scoring game than most expect with playoff-like environment. This game will be as intense as two hobos fighting over a ham sandwich.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) vs. Seattle
I'm a little weary taking the 49ers after a coaching change, but then I think back to the performance that the 49ers offense put on again Hawks defense in week 2 and I get goosebumps. Couple this with the injuries that Seattle is suffering and their unblemished 0-3 road record and I like San Fran. Remember also that these two combined for 63 points in September and don't neglect the over of 41.
Monday Night
TENNESSEE (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis
Ride her til she bucks you. Thats how I feel about the Titans this year, who are 6-0 against the spread. Additionally, the Titans have gone 4-0 ATS vs. the Colts over the last two seasons. Numbers don't lie. Thats why I like them so much.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD TO DATE: 5-2
SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 60-42
AS ALWAYS TED, GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY!
BUFFALO (-1.5) @ Miami
Buffalo has won 8 straight ATS vs Miami and is coming off a big win vs. San Diego. Edwards was sharp in his first game back from concussion and shred the Chargers D for 261 yards on 25 of 30 passing. In addition, Marshawn Lynch continued to be good for a TD a game. Miami meanwhile took a step back with a home loss to a Baltimore team that had done very little this season on the offensive side of the ball until last week. In what is essentially a pick, I go with the team that has the momentum and the talent. Lock it up!
REST OF WEEK 7:
1pm Games
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) @ Dallas
Two quick facts sum up this matchup: The Bucs are 6-1 ATS this season and the Boys are 2-5 ATS this season. Add to that the injuries and turmoil in big D and its a wonder why the Bucs aren't the ones giving points. Expect to see Jerry Jones pacing the sidelines and Wade Phillips waiting for his pink slip.
DETROIT (+7.5) vs. Washington
Fact: Washington has not beaten a team this season by more than 7 points and are coming off of bad home performances against St. Louis and Cleveland. While Detroit is no gem, they have had close road losses the past two weeks to quality opponents. Detroit at home coupled with Portis' sore shoulder and I like the Lions to cover.
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) @ New England
Just like I said last week this Patriots squad will be alternating up and down all season. Last week was up so this week will be down. I also expect Stephen Jackson to run wild.
NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) vs. San Diego
The Saints are a better team at home (3-1) than on the road (0-3). Likewise, the Chargers tend to struggle away from San Diego (1-3), especially scoring points. New Orleans getting points in this game seems like a gift from Vegas so don't pass it up.
NEW YORK JETS (-12.5) vs. Kansas City
When Larry Johnson said this past week, "I want to start off saying I apologize to the Hunt family, my family, first and foremost, the fans, teammates, coaches and players." was he talking about slapping and spitting on some skank at a bar or the Chiefs performance? They have lost by 15 or more points in 4 of the last 5 weeks, including back to back scores of 34-0 and 34-10. At least they are consistent in what they allow. Even without the LJ distractions this one would be a no brainer. Take the Jets.
ATLANTA (+8.5) @ Philadelphia
Atlanta has been the surprise team of the '08 season so far and for some reason the odds makers haven't caught on yet. The Eagles are fading in support with the Phillies doing so well and this home game will not be like the usual hostile environment at the Linc. Take the points.
OAKLAND (+6.5) @ Baltimore
Seems like a lot of points for two very similar teams. Strong D, rely on the run, can pass for shit. Take the underdog in this situation.
CAROLINA (-4.5) vs. Arizona
Carolina is a different team at home. They are undefeated and have outscored opponents in the last two games by 64-7. Arizona meanwhile has given up 80 points in its last two road games. I love the Panthers and I smell a sweet aroma in the air. Its either fresh baked cookies or the over of 43.5
4pm Games
JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) vs. Cleveland
Jax will run the ball and that will be the story of the game. I also like the under of 42 points. With the exception of Cleveland's MNF outburst of 35 points against the defending champs, they have struggled to put points up. It won't get any easier against the physical and intimidating Jaguars.
HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. Cincinnati
I will bet against the Bengals every week this season unless something drastic happens. Apologies to all Bengals fans. wait...what was that? there are none. ok, good. I feel better now.
PITTSBURGH (-2.5) vs. New York Giants
Two very solid teams so I will side with the home club. I think this will be a lower scoring game than most expect with playoff-like environment. This game will be as intense as two hobos fighting over a ham sandwich.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) vs. Seattle
I'm a little weary taking the 49ers after a coaching change, but then I think back to the performance that the 49ers offense put on again Hawks defense in week 2 and I get goosebumps. Couple this with the injuries that Seattle is suffering and their unblemished 0-3 road record and I like San Fran. Remember also that these two combined for 63 points in September and don't neglect the over of 41.
Monday Night
TENNESSEE (-4.5) vs. Indianapolis
Ride her til she bucks you. Thats how I feel about the Titans this year, who are 6-0 against the spread. Additionally, the Titans have gone 4-0 ATS vs. the Colts over the last two seasons. Numbers don't lie. Thats why I like them so much.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD TO DATE: 5-2
SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 60-42
AS ALWAYS TED, GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY!
Friday, October 17, 2008
WEEK 7 NFL PICKS
LOCK OF THE WEEK:SAN DIEGO (+0.5) @ Buffalo
San Diego is heating up after beating down the Patriots in prime time last week. LT has averaged 114 yards rushing/game in 3 career matchups vs. Buffalo and I expect to see a lot more of that. Trent Edwards is coming back for his first game since his concussion and I see him turning the ball over at least a couple of times against the aggressive Chargers secondary.
REST OF WEEK 7:
1pm Games
CHICAGO (-3.5) vs. Minnesota
Kyle Orton and his receivers have continued to go above expectations and will do so again at home against a suspect Vikings defense. Additionally, the Vikings continue to disappoint with last week's narrow home victory of the Lions.
PITTSBURGH (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
Whether its Parker or Moore starting at RB for the Steelers they will have a huge game on the ground. Cinncy is without starting QB Palmer and with the season already lost, have nothing left to play for.
TENNESSEE (-7.5) @ Kansas City
The only remaining undefeated team vs. the most pathetic team in the NFL. hmmmmmm. tough one. Big day on the ground for Titans two RBs.
NEW ORLEANS (+3.5) @ Carolina
The Saints offense will be firing on all cylinders with the return of Colston to an already potent lineup. This will free up Bush for a big day and I expect a high-scoring shootout. Consider the over in this game as well.
DALLAS (-6.5) @ St. Louis
Despite the issues at QB and the distractions that Pacman brings, the Cowboys are too good a team to not put up more points than the Rams can handle. Love the over in this one as well.
MIAMI (-2.5) vs. Baltimore
I don't expect the Ravens to put up more than 10 points. They are led by a rookie QB (Flacco) and rely heavily on a running game. Problem for them is that the Fish are 5th in run defense and have won their last 3 games ATS. This one borders on LOCK status. The low O/U of 35 deserves a look as well.
SAN FRANCISCO (+10.5) @ New York Giants
49ers will be able to put up enough points to a Giants team that suddenly looks like they are back down to Earth after the beat down the Browns handed the.
4pm games
HOUSTON (-8.5) vs. Detroit
Not much here to say except that Detroit sucks. a lot. really bad. Has anyone ever heard of Dan Orlovsky before last week? didn't think so. next game...
NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) @ Oakland
Owner Al Davis has ruined this team for the season with his firing of Kiffen. Someone needs to feed that guy his soup so he doesn't get so cranky. or change him. or something. Either way, the Jets have started to put points on the board as Favre starts to get more comfortable and Thomas Jones came out of hibernation last week. Blowout here.
CLEVELAND (+7.5) @ Washington
Cleveland just beat the previously undefeated Super Bowl champs by 21 points and the Redskins lost to the Rams by 2 at home. Am I missing something here? Take the Browns who will not lose by more than a TD.
INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) @ Green Bay
Lambeau Field just doesn't have the same intimidation factor when Aaron Rodgers and his sore shoulder are running the show. Colts offense looks to be fine (with or without the overrated Addai). Indy takes this one big.
8pm game
TAMPA BAY (-10.5) vs. Seattle
Bucs at home this year are a dominant team with that defense and a ball-control offense. Additionally, the Bucs are 5-0 since opening week ATS. Seattle's only win this year came against St. Louis. I give the Hawks as much of a chance in this game as I do of my Grandmother knocking out Mike Tyson.
Monday Night
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. Denver
Oh those tricky Pats. This season they have been up-down-up-down. Well...its time for an up week. This in combination with the weak Broncos defense and the pride that these veteran players will show after last week's embarrassing prime-time loss have all signs pointing to New England. Oh, and don't get caught up in all the hype for the over. Broncos offense has slowed the last two weeks and this year's Patriots can't put them up like they used to.
LOCK OF THE WEEK RECORD TO DATE: 5-1
SEASON PICKS RECORD TO DATE: 55-33
Sunday, October 12, 2008
LOCK OF THE WEEK RESULTS
A feature of sweetactionpicks is that every week I will provide a "Lock of the Week". These Locks are provided on Friday and use the spreads provided by espn. The "Lock of the Week" picks to date this year were as follows:Week 1: San Francisco/Arizona (Over 48)
Week 2: Green Bay (-2.5)
Week 3: Tennesse (-4.5)
Week 4: San Diego (-7.5)
Week 5: Indianapolis (-3.5)
Week 6: Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Lock of the Week results as of 10-12-2008: 5-1
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